考研英语时文阅读【3.14完】_派派后花园

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举报只看该作者 20楼发表于: 2014-03-11 0

考研时文阅读（21）
篇章结构分析
本文的主题是有关美国的非法移民问题。第一段引出非法移民这一矛盾的问题，即美国人不喜欢非法移民，但又依靠非法移民来做事情。第二、三段讲述了参议院最近对非法移民问题的讨论，及可能出台的法律措施。第四段提到了移民的支持者已在美国一些大城市开始采取激烈的行动来维护自己的利益。第五段继续论述了新法案通过的困难性。末段提出足够的签证有可能解决美国非法移民这一问题。
核心词汇记忆
no less than  与… 一样                   depend on 取决于，依靠
such…as…  像…一样                    bring up 抚养，教育
give priority to  给…优先考虑             contribute to 有助于，导致
call for 要求，需要                       regardless of 不管
In the neighborhoods of Los Angeles, white kids occasionally shout to each other in Spanish. They learn their first words from Mexican nannies who are often working illegally, just like the maids who scrub floors and the gardeners who cut their lawns, which helps to explain why fixing America's broken immigration system is proving so difficult. Californians, no less than the residents of other states, find illegal immigration distasteful. Yet they depend on immigrants for even such intimate tasks as bringing up their children.
This week the Senate was trying again to reconcile these contradictory problems. It seemed close to the promise of legalization for the nation's roughly 12 m illegals, some 2.5 m of them in California alone. But their cases will not be considered until the border is deemed to have been made more secure and the current stockpile of legal immigrants is cleared—something that will take at least eight years. Worse, from the immigrants' point of view, they will probably have to leave the country and then implore to return, in what is known as “touch-back”.
If it becomes law, the Senate bill will transform America's immigration system. Following the lead of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Britain, America would adopt a points system that will give priority to the sort of young, employable immigrants who are most likely to contribute to the economy. Family ties, essential in deciding immigration claims since the 1960s, would become less important.
Immigrant advocates have become more militant. Last year huge, mostly orderly crowds gathered on the streets of Los Angeles, Chicago and other cities to protest against a bill, passed by the House of Representatives that would have criminalised illegal immigrants. Many carried American flags. Rallies earlier this month, by contrast, were dominated by professional protesters. In Los Angeles a small and occasionally angry crowd clashed with police. Protesters have called for another rally next month in Hollywood.
Although the pressure for reform appears overwhelming, it is not clear that a deal can be done this year. Compromise may prove more elusive in the House of Representatives. Because of the way that congressional districts are drawn, many politicians represent constituencies with large numbers of ethnic minorities or hardly any at all.
Nor is it clear that the Senate plan would bring illegal immigrants out of the shadows. Those who have American children (up to 40% of those in California) will be reluctant to “touch-back”. Much will also depend on how many visas are made available to unskilled workers. If there are too few, the supply of immigrant labour will surely continue to meet the demand for it, regardless of what the law says.

参考译文
在美国洛杉矶的一些邻近地区，白人孩子偶尔会用西班牙语彼此叫嚷。他们从墨西哥奶妈那里学到了最早的词汇，而那些奶妈通常都是非法打工者，就像那些擦地板的女仆和整理草坪的园艺工一样，这就解释了为什么要修补好美国已经受到破坏的移民制度是如此艰难。加州人也和其他各州的居民一样，觉得非法移民令人生厌，然而他们却又依赖移民来承担甚至像抚育孩子这样亲密的任务。
本周参议院正试图重新解决这些令人感到矛盾的问题。现在看起来这个国家中大约1千2百万的非法移民很有希望可以合法化，其中仅在加州就有大约250万非法移民。但是只有在边境变得更加安全、以及当前的合法移民问题得到充分解决之后（这需要至少8年的时间才能解决），非法移民的问题才会得以考虑。更遭糕的是，从移民们的观点来看，他们有可能不得不先离开这个国家，然后再申请回来，这就是所谓的“touch-back”。
如果有关非法移民的问题得以立法，那么参议院的这一法案将改变美国的移民制度。美国将学加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰和英国的做法，采用一个积分制度，并优先考虑那类年轻且有工作能力的移民，因为他们更有可能为美国经济作贡献。自从上世纪60年代以来，对移民申请极为重要的家庭关系，在将来会变得不再那么重要。
移民的支持者已经采取越来越激烈的行动。去年，大量移民有组织地来到洛杉矶、芝加哥以及其它城市的大街上游行来抗议众议院通过的一项将非法移民犯罪化的法案。他们中的许多人都挥舞着美国国旗。而这个月早些时候这些游行队伍则由职业抗议者们所领导。在洛杉矶，一小部分愤怒的人群偶尔会与警察发生冲突。现在抗议者们正在号召下个月在好莱坞举行另一次集会。
尽管改革的压力显得非常大，但是目前不清楚在今年法案是否能够通过。妥协在众议院会证明更加难以令人置信。因为国会采取分区的方式，所以很多政治家代表的是有很多人口的少数民族或者根本不代表任何少数民族。
现在参议院的计划是否能够使非法移民走出阴影仍然是个谜团。许多人的孩子都是美国公民（其中高达40%的在加州），他们都不会愿意“touch-back”。这也将大大取决于有多少签证能够发放给没有特殊技能的工人。如果签证太少，那么不管法律制定了什么标准，对移民劳动力的供应还将一定继续来满足对移民劳动力的需求。

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举报只看该作者 21楼发表于: 2014-03-12 0

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Imagine waking up and finding the value of your assets has been halved. No, you are not an investor in one of those hedge funds that failed completely. With the dollar slumping to 26-year low against the pound, already-expensive London has become quite unaffordable. A coffee at Starbucks, just as unavoidable in England as it is in the United States, runs about $ 8.
The once all-powerful dollar isn’t doing a Titanic against just the pound. It is sitting at a record low against the euro and at a 30-year low against the Canadian dollar. Even the Argentina peso and Brazilian real are thriving against the dollar.
想象一下，当你醒来时发现自己的资产价值已经减少了一半，但你却不像那些彻底破产倒闭的对冲基金之一的投资者那样。随着美元兑换英镑的汇率创下了26年来的最低纪录，已经昂贵的伦敦消费已经变得让人无法忍受。在英国，就像在美国不可避免的一样，喝上一杯星巴克（Starbacks）咖啡的价格却高达8美元。
曾经不可一世的美元现在没有与英镑保持着坚挺的汇率。美元兑换欧元的汇率跌落至历史的最低点，美元兑换加拿大元的汇率也创下了30年的新低，甚至阿根廷比索和巴西里拉也对美元保持着坚挺的汇率。
The weak dollar is a source of humiliation, for a nation’s self-esteem rests in part on the strength of its currency. It is also a potential economic problem, since a declining dollar makes imported food more expensive and exerts upward pressure on interest rates. And yet there are substantial sectors of the vast U.S. economy----from giant companies like Coca-cola to mon-and-pop restaurant operators in Miami----for which the weak dollar is most excellent news.
Many Europeans may view the U.S. as an arrogant superpower that has become hostile to foreigners. But nothing makes people think more warmly of the U.S. as a sight-seeing place than a weak dollar. Through April, the total number of visitors from abroad was up 6.8 percent from last year. Should the trend continue, the number of tourists this year will finally top the 2000 peak? Many Europeans now apparently view the U.S. the way many Americans view Mexico----as a cheap place to vacation, shop and party, all while ignoring the fact that the poorer locals can’t afford to join the merrymaking.
弱势的美元是屈辱的根源。在某种程度上，一个国家的自尊取决于其货币的坚挺。弱势的美元也是一个潜在的经济问题，不断下挫的美元会使得进口商品更加昂贵，迫使利率上升。然而，对于庞大的美国经济的许多部门-----无论是可口可乐这样的商业巨头还是迈阿密家庭餐馆的经营者来说，弱势美元是最好的消息。
许多欧洲人也许将美国视为一个对外国人怀有敌意的，自负傲慢的超级大国。但是没有任何事物能比弱势美元更能让人热切地将美国视为旅游之地。整个四月，来自国外的游客总数比去年增长了6.8%。如果这一趋势持续下去，今年的游客数量会最终达到2000年时的顶峰吗？与许多美国人看待墨西哥一样-----许多欧洲人现在显然将美国视为一个旅游、购物以及聚会的便宜之所，即便他们都忽略了一个事实：贫困的美国当地人不可能与他们一起狂欢作乐。
The money tourists spend helps decrease our chronic trade deficit. So do exports, which thanks in part to the weak dollar, soared 11 percent between May 2006 and May 2007. For the first five months of 2007, the trade deficit actually fell 7 percent from 2006.
If you own shares in large American corporations, you are a winner in the weak-dollar gamble. Last week Coca-cola’s stock bubbled to a five-year high after it reported a fantastic quarter. Foreign sales accounted for 65 percent of Coke’s beverage business. Other American companies profiting from this trend include McDonald’s and IBM.
American tourists, however, shouldn’t expect any relief soon. The dollar lost strength the way many marriages break up----slowly, and then all at once. And currencies don’t turn on a dime. So if you want to avoid the pain inflicted by the increasingly pathetic dollar, cancel that summer vacation to England and look to New England. There, the dollar is still treated with a little respect.
游客们花的钱使得我们的长期贸易赤字有所减少。在2006年5月到2007年5月之间，出口额猛增了11个百分点，这也得部分归功于弱势美元的作用。2007年的头5个月，贸易赤字比2006年下降了7%。
如果你持有美国大企业的股票，你也成为了这场弱势美元投资活动的赢家。上周，在公布了一个利好业绩的季度之后，可口可乐的股价创下了5年来新高。国外销售额占到了可口可乐饮料营业额的65%。在这一趋势中获利的其他美国公司还包括麦当劳和IBM。
但是，美国的游客们短时间内可能无法松口气了，与许多破裂的婚姻一样，美元失去势头的方式----缓慢随后突然。与此同时，货币也不会立即升值。因此，如果你想避免日渐凄凉的美元所造成的痛苦，不妨取消暑期到英国的旅游，转而寻求到新英格兰度假。在那里，美元依旧可以获得一些尊重。

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举报只看该作者 22楼发表于: 2014-03-12 0

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The percentage of immigrants (including those unlawfully present) in the United States has been creeping upward for years. At 12.6 percent, it is now higher than at any point since the mid-1920s.
We are not about to go back to the days when Congress openly worried about inferior races polluting America’s bloodstream. But once again we are wondering whether we have too many of the wrong sort of newcomers. Their loudest critics argue that the new wave of immigrants can’t and indeed do not want to, fit in as previous generations did.
美国移民（包括目前那些非法的）所占的比率数年来一直在稳步上升。今年是12.6%，这比20世纪20年代中期以来任何一年都要高。
我们不可能回到国会公开担心劣等民族会污染美国血液的那个时代了。但是我们又想知道美国非法的新来者是不是太多。呼声最高的批评者认为，新一代的移民不能也不像他们的先辈们那样融入美国社会。
We now know that these racist views were wrong. In time, Italians, Romanians and members of other so-called inferior races became exemplary Americans and contributed greatly, in ways too numerous to detail, to the building of this magnificent nation. There is no reason why these new immigrants should not have the same success.
我们现在知道这些种族主义者的观点是错误的。意大利人、罗马尼亚任何其它一些被称为劣等种族的人最终都成了美国人的典范，在许多方面（太多不便详述）为这个伟大国家的建设做出了巨大的贡献。没有理由怀疑这些移民不会取得同样的成功。
Although children of Mexican immigrants do better, in terms of educational and professional attainment, than their parents, UCLA sociologist Edward Telles has found that the gains don’t continue. Indeed, the fourth generation is marginally worse off than the third. James Jackson, of the University of Michigan, has found a similar trend among black Caribbean immigrants. Telles fears that Mexican-Americans may become mired in a seemingly permanent state of poverty and underachievement. Like African-Americans, Mexican-Americans are increasingly relegated to segregated, substandard schools, and their dropout rate is the highest for any ethnic group in the country.
尽管墨西哥移民的子女在学术成绩和专业水平方面比其父母要好，但加州大学洛杉矶分校的社会学家爱德华泰利斯发现这种优势不再有了。事实上，移民子女的第四代跟第三代相比有点孙色。密歇根大学的詹姆斯克孙在来自加勒比海的黑人移民身上也发现了相似的趋势。泰利斯担心墨西哥裔美国人也许注定会步非裔黑人的后尘：大部分人也许会陷入永远贫困和无所作为的状态。像非裔美国人那样，墨西哥裔美国人也逐渐进入那种实施种族隔离的次等学校，他们的辍学率在其它种族中是最高的。
We have learned much about the foolish idea of excluding people on the presumption of the ethnic/racial inferiority. But what we have not yet learned is how to make the process of Americanization work for all. I am not talking about requiring people to learn English or to adopt American ways; those things happen pretty much on their own. But as arguments about immigration heat up the campaign trail, we also ought to ask some broader question about assimilation, about how to ensure that people, once outsiders, don’t forever remain marginalized within these shores.
基于种族劣势的推定而把那些人排斥在外的愚蠢主意我们已经了解得多了。但我们不知道的是如何让所有的移民都融入到美国社会中去。我不是说让他们学英语或者按美国的方式做事，事实上他们自己在这样做了。但是正如关于移民的争论使得竞选活动升温那样，我们也应该在同化，以及如何确保使曾经的外人在美国不被永远边缘化等方面问一些更加概括性的问题。
That is a much larger question than what should happen with undocumented workers, or how best to secure the border, and it is one that affects not only newcomers but groups that have been here for generations. It will have more impact on our future than where we decide to set the admissions bar for the latest wave of would-be Americans. And it would be nice if we finally got the answer right.
与如何处理那些非法工人或如何让最好地保障边境安全相比，那是一个更大的问题，它影响到的不仅是新来的移民，也有呆在美国数代的人。它对我们未来的影响要比新一批将要成为美国人的人在那儿设置准入门槛多得多。如果我们最终能够找到答案那就更好了。

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举报只看该作者 23楼发表于: 2014-03-12 0

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In the college-admission wars, we parents are the true fighters. We’re pushing our kids to get good grades, take SAT preparatory courses and build resumes so they can get into the college of our first choice. We’ve twice been to the wars, and as I survey the battlefield, something different is happening. We see our kids’ college background as a prize demonstrating how well we’ve raised them. But we can’t acknowledge that our obsession is more about us than them. So we’ve contrived various justifications that turn out to be half-truths, prejudices or myths. It actually doesn’t matter much whether Aaron and Nicole go to Stanford.
在考大学这场战争中，我们这些做父母的真是名符其实的战士。我们强迫自己的孩子考出好成绩，参加SAT预备课程，写简历，以便让他们能够进入到我们首选的大学。我经历过两次这样的战争，当我回顾战场时，总会有不同的想法，我们将孩子的大学教育背景视为一个奖品，证明我们在教育子女上做得有多好。但是我们却不肯承认我们更关心的是我们自己，而不是在关心他们。因此，我们要做的各种辩解都是片面的、带有偏见或是虚构的。Aaron 和Nicole能否进入斯坦福大学实际上无关紧要。
   We have a full-blown prestige panic; we worry that there won’t be enough prizes to go around. Fearful parents urge their children to apply to more schools than ever. Underlying the hysteria(歇斯底里)is the belief that scarce elite degrees must be highly valuable. Their graduates must enjoy more success because they get a better education and develop better contacts. All that is plausible---and mostly wrong. We haven’t found any convincing evidence that selectivity or prestige matters. Selective schools don’t systematically employ better instructional approaches than less selective schools. On two measures---professors’ feedback and the number of essay exams----selective schools do slightly worse.
      我们充满了对名誉的恐惧；我们担心没有足够分发的奖品。战战兢兢的父母督促自己的孩子去申请比以往更多的学校。在这种歇斯底里的情绪下隐藏着一种信念，即稀缺的精英学位必然是极为可贵的。拥有该学位的毕业生必定可以享受到更多的成功，因为他们接受了更好的教育，积累了更好的人脉。所有的这些似乎都是合理的-----然而通常都是错的。我们没有找到任何有力的证据证明出类拔萃或名誉起着重要的作用。比起非精英学校，精英学校并没有系统地采用更好的教育方法。在两项标准上-----教授的反馈以及论文考试的数量上----精英学校要稍逊一筹。
   By some studies, selective schools do enhance their graduates’ lifetime earnings. The gain is reckoned at 2—4% for every 100-point increase in a school’s average SAT scores. But even this advantage is probably a statistical fluke(偶然). A well-known study examined students who got into highly selective schools and then went elsewhere. They earned just as much as graduates form higher-status schools.
     一些研究表明，精英学校确实能提高他们毕业生的终生所得。一所学校中的SAT平均分每高出100分，获得的收入大约高出2--4%。但是即使这样的优势也可能是由统计上的偶然性造成的。一项知名研究对进入精英学校，随后转入其他学校的学生进行了调查。这些学生与来自精英学校毕业生获得的收入一样多。
  Kids count more than their colleges. Getting into Yale may signify intelligence, talent and ambition. But it’s not the only indicator and, paradoxically, its significance is declining. The reason: so many similar people go elsewhere. Getting into college isn’t life’s only competition. In the next competition---the job market and graduate school----the results may change. Old-boy networks are breaking down. Princeton economist Alan Krueger studied admissions to one top Ph.D. program. High scores on the GRE helped explain who got in; degrees of prestigious universities didn’t.
    孩子们不一定要上大学才有出息。进入耶鲁大学也许意味着聪明、才干和抱负。但这不是惟一的指标。相反的是，它的重要性正在下降，原因就是：很多条件相似的人没有上大学。上大学并不只是人生唯一的竞赛。而在另一场竞赛中----职场和研究生院中----结果也许会发生变化。老校友的关系网正在瓦解。普拉斯顿大学的经济学家Alan Krueger对一项顶级博士培养计划的录取进行了研究。研究表明，获取GRE高分能解释谁能被上大学；而享有声望的大学学位却不能。
   So, parents, lighten up. The stakes have been vastly exaggerated. Up to a point, we can rationalize our pushiness. America is a competitive society; our kids need to adjust to that. But too much pushiness can be destructive. The very ambition we impose on our children may get some into Harvard but may also set them up for disappointment. One study found that, other things being equal, graduates of highly selective schools experienced more job dissatisfaction. They may have been so conditioned to being on top that anything less disappoints.
    因此，父母们放轻松些吧。这一利害关系被极大地扩大了。在一定程度上，我们能够为自己的催逼辩解。美国是一个竞争的社会。我们的孩子需要适应它。但是太多的催逼也会对孩子有着破坏性的影响。我们在孩子身上寄予的雄心壮志也许能促使他们中的一些人进入哈佛大学，但也会让他们失望。一项研究发现，在其他条件均等的情况下，精英学校的毕业生会经历更多的工作不满。他们也许习惯了不会带来一丝失望的优势地位。

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Background Information
    "医学之父"希波克拉底说过："让食物变成你的药，让药变成你的食物。"作为一个生于公元前五世纪的希腊人，他的智慧远远超越了他所处的时代。如今，我们知道低脂肪而富含全麦、水果和蔬菜的饮食结构能增强我们的免疫力，并能减少癌症、心脏病和中风的发病率。
    但是，这些还不完全。新的证据显示食品可能会影响健康人的思考和感觉方式。如果希波克拉底今天还在世的话，他也许会回顾他吃过的最后一顿饭，解释他兴奋（或忧伤）的心情。他可能还会改变自己的饮食习惯，使自己变得更幸福或更聪明。
                      Can milk make you happy?
                               Can fish make you smart?
  Picture yourself lying in bed, your mind in turmoil. You toss and turn, but sleep won't come. Maybe a bedtime snack would help. What should you choose? If you think first of toaster waffles or popcorn, some experts would say you're on the right track. Foods high in complex carbohydrates---such as cereals, potatoes, pasta, crackers, or rice cakes---make many people relaxed and drowsy.
  Missed that one? Try again. Suppose the weather's rotten, you forgot your homework, and your best friend's mad at you. What's good medicine when you're feeling low? A sugary cola or candy may give you a quick lift, but you'll crash just as quickly. Better choices may be Brazil nuts (for selenium), skim milk (for calcium), or a spinach salad (for folic acid). In research studies, all three of those nutrients have been shown to lift spirits and battle the blues.
  Try one more. You have a math test coming up in the afternoon. You want to be sharp, but you usually feel sleepy after lunch. Is your best choice an energy fix of fries and a shake or a broiled chicken breast and low-fat yogurt? If you pick the high-fat fries and shake, you may feel sluggish and blow that test. The protein-rich chicken and yogurt are better choices. Protein foods energize, some experts say.
  How does food affect mood and mind? The answer may lie in the chemistry of the brain and nervous system. Molecules called neurotransmitters are chemical messengers. They carry a nerve impulse across the gap between nerve cells. The release of neurotransmitter molecules from one neuron and their attachment to receptor sites on another keep a nerve impulse moving.
  Nerve impulses carry messages from the environment to the brain, for example, the pain you feel when you stub your toe. They also carry messages in the other direction, from the brain to the muscles. That's why you back away from the obstacle that initiated the pain signal and exclaim, "Ouch!"
  "Many neurotransmitters are built from the foods we eat," says neuroscientist Eric Chudler of the University of Washington. Too little or too much of a particular nutrient in the diet can affect their production, Chudler says. For example, tryptophan from foods such as yogurt, milk, bananas, and eggs is required for the production of the neurotransmitter serotonin. Phenylalanine from beets, almonds, eggs, meat, and grains goes into making the neurotransmitter dopamine.
  Dozens of neurotransmitters are known; hundreds may exist. Their effects depend on their amounts and where they work in the brain. The neurotransmitter serotonin, for example, is thought to produce feelings of calmness, relaxation, and contentment. Drugs that prevent its reuptake (into the neuron that released it) are prescribed to treat depression. In at least some healthy, non-depressed people, carbohydrate foods seem to enhance serotonin production and produce similar effects. "It is the balance between different neurotransmitters that helps regulate mood," Chudler says.
  Proper nutrition may also enhance brainpower. Chorine is a substance similar to the B vitamins. It's found in egg yolks, whole wheat, peanuts, milk, green peas, liver, beans, seafood, and soybeans. The brain uses it to make the neurotransmitter acetylcholine. To test the effects of chorine on memory and learning, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology gave memory tests to college students before increasing the amount of chorine in their subjects’ diets. Later, they retested. On the average, memories were better, and the students learned a list of unrelated words more easily.
核心词汇
picture v. 想象，设想; (常后接介词as) ，相当于imagine
turmoil n. 骚动，混乱（disorder=mess）
snack n. 小吃，零食；
on the right track(在合适或正确的小路或轨道上)，比喻为：做某事情是对的。
drowsy a. 昏昏欲睡的，催眠的，沉寂的；动词：drowse=doze off=sleep
rotten a. 腐烂的，腐朽的；比喻为：糟糕的，坏的
give sb. a lift=make you refreshed 给某人提神
crash v. 崩溃，撞碎，垮台
skim n. 脱脂 v. 撇去，去除；浏览，略读
spirits(用做复数时，表示“情绪，心情”的意思，比如be in high spirits情绪高涨, be in low spirits 情
  绪低落，它还有“酒，酒精”的意思，如果是“精神”，就只用作单数。)
battle 战斗，斗争，用做动词，就是：与…做斗争，抑制
blues 忧虑，悲伤。
sluggish a. 懒散的，懒惰的
blow the test 直译为：吹打考试，可以理解为：考砸了。
energize v. (ize是常用的动词后缀)，能源化，提供能量
lie in=consist in 存在于，lie with（后面常接表示人的单词）
nervous system(医学词汇) 神经系统；nerves 神经
attachment 依附，附属于；爱恋，依恋(后常接介词to)；形容词短语：be attached to附属于，爱上某人；
receptor 接收器；感觉感官
impulse 冲动，萌动；脉冲
back away 后退，躲开
obstacle 障碍物，阻碍物obstacle n. 障碍，妨碍，干扰；The process is not the road itself, but
  rather the attitudes and feelings people have, their caution or courage, as they encounter new
  experiences and unexpected obstacles.  成长过程不是道路本身，而是当遇到新情况或意外困难时所持的
  态度和情感，是慎重行事还是勇往直前。
initiate 开始，创始，启动
signal 信号；sign n. 招牌，迹象；v. 签字，签名；
exclaim 呼喊，大叫
diet 饮食；dietary 饮食的，be/go on a diet节食
depend on/upon=rely on=count on=rest on/upon=hinge on/upon(注意动词后接介词on和upon的意思是一样的)
  依靠，取决于
be thought to 被认为是
relaxation n. 放松，松弛，娱乐，休闲
enhance v. 提高，增强; enhance living standards 提高生活水平
regulate=control=manipulate=supervise 控制，制约
subject 实验对象，科目，主题，主语；v. 使…受到(subject…to); 形容词短语be subject to 受到…影响
on the average 总体说来

参考译文
                     喝牛奶能让你快乐吗？吃鱼能使你变聪明吗？
    设想一下你躺在床上，脑子里却一片混乱。你辗转反侧，但总也睡不着。也许在睡觉时吃点零食会对你有帮助。你应当选择吃些什么呢？如果你的首选是威化饼或爆米花，那么一些专家就会说你选对了。富含复合碳水化合物的食品，比如麦片、土豆、面食、饼干或米糕，会使许多人感到放松和困倦。
    你选错了吗？再试一次。假如天气糟糕，你忘了做家庭作业，同时你的好朋友又对你大发雷霆。在你情绪低落之时，什么对你来说是一剂良药呢？一杯甜可乐或一块糖果可能会使你情绪很快高涨，但你的情绪又会很快崩溃。也许更好的选择是吃些巴西胡桃（获得更多的硒），脱脂牛奶（获得更多的钙），或菠菜沙拉（获得更多的叶酸）。研究表明，上述三种营养素都会使人们情绪高涨，抑制忧虑。
    再试一次吧。下午你将参加数学考试。你想要精力充沛，可你总是在午饭后感到昏昏欲睡。能使你精神饱满的最佳选择是薯条和奶昔，还是鸡胸肉和低脂酸奶？如果你选中了高脂肪的薯条和奶昔，你就会感到非常懒散，很可能考砸了。高蛋白的鸡肉和酸奶是较好的选择。有些专家说蛋白质食品给人们提供能量。
    食物是怎样影响人的情绪和思维的呢？答案可能存在于人的大脑和神经系统的化学结构。被称为神经递质的分子是化学信使。它们（这些信使）把携带神经脉冲穿过神经细胞之间的空隙。神经递质分子从一个神经元释放后，会附着到另一个接受感官上，从而令神经脉冲不断地运动。
    神经脉冲能够把周边环境的信息传输到大脑中，例如，当你脚趾被绊了一下时，你就会感到疼。神经脉冲也能从相反的方向传递信息，比如说从大脑到肌肉。这就是为什么当障碍物产生疼痛的信号时，你就会躲开障碍物，并且大喊："哎哟!"
    华盛顿大学的神经科学家埃里克•查德勒说："许多神经递质是靠我们所吃的食物形成的。" 查德勒指出，过多或过少地通过饮食摄入一种营养素可以影响这些神经递质的形成。例如，来自诸如酸奶、牛奶、香蕉和鸡蛋的色氨酸会产生神经递质的血清素。来自甜菜、杏仁、鸡蛋、肉和谷物中的苯基丙胺酸会形成神经递质的多巴胺。
    已知的神经递质有数十种，但实际存在的可能有几百种。它们产生的效果取决于本身的数量和它们在大脑中运转的位置。例如，神经递质血清素被认为会产生平静、放松和满足的感觉。治疗情绪低落时，大夫就开出一些能够防止它返回（即进入到释放出它的神经元中）的药。至少在一些健康和情绪不低落的人当中，碳水化合物食物似乎能够促进血清素的生成并能产生类似效应。查德勒说："不同神经递质之间的平衡帮助调节人的情绪。"
    恰当的营养能提高人的脑力。胆碱是一种类似于维生素B的物质。它存在于蛋黄、全麦、花生、牛奶、菜豆、肝、蚕豆、海鲜和黄豆中。大脑利用这种物质生成神经递质的乙酰胆碱。为了检测胆碱对记忆和学习的影响，麻省理工学院的研究者们对大学生进行了记忆测验。随后，他们在试验对象的饮食中增加胆碱的量，随后又重新实验。从总体上来看，学生的记忆力有所提高，他们能够更加容易地学会一系列不相关的单词。

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ZxID：11247485

等级: 内阁元老

配偶: 浮生缘

http://www.paipai.fm/r5969083/

举报只看该作者 25楼发表于: 2014-03-12 0

考研时文阅读(26)
经济类文章
Background Information
    美元持续走低，意味着美国经济存在缺陷，但是否就意味着地球上其他国家也将遭受劫难？答案是否定的。世界经济将从美元的逐步下滑中受益。这将有助于缓解全球流动资金失衡状况，并且通过将生产转移到美国可贸易领域，缓冲房地产泡沫破灭给美国经济带来的震荡。诚然，美元的下滑将影响欧洲及亚洲的出口，但如果这些地区的央行现有的利率走低，进而促进内需---这也正是全球经济达到重新平衡所需要的局面----那么这种影响将会被抵消。现今欧洲及亚洲的强势增长也将有助于防止美国经济的低迷蔓延至整个世界。
                                   The Falling Dollar
  THE dollar's tumble this week was attended by predictable shrinks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004.
  The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market's troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast, German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling.
  So, contrary to popular perceptions, America's economy has not significantly outperformed Europe's in recent years. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households' saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged.
  Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors---or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies.
  The main reason for the dollar's strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world's other rich country economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hypothesis. Sure, America's GDP growth has been faster than Europe's, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movement, exaggerate America's lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone.
  America's growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth.
  As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labor markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar.
核心词汇：
tumble v. ①（使）摔倒；② 打滚，翻腾；n. 摔跤，跌倒
shrink n. v. 萎缩，减少; [同义词]dwindle
euro 欧元
slip v. ①滑，滑倒；② 滑落，滑掉；③ 溜走；n. 疏忽，小错，口误，笔误
  Step outside and you could break a leg, slipping on your doormat.［1999年阅读1］
如果你走出去，可能会滑倒在门垫上，摔伤一条腿。
trigger n. 扳机，触发器；v. 触发，引发，引起
nasty a. 肮脏的，污秽的，下流的，恶意的
housing market 住房市场
durable-goods 耐用品
in /by contrast 相比之下，on the contrary 相反；
mount v. (由名词mountain变来) 爬上去，增长，上升
pile up 堆积，囤积
assiduously 勤勉地，勤恳地
cyclical 循环的，周期性的；recycle 循环，再利用；recyclable 可回收的
illusion 幻觉，错觉；illusory 幻觉的，虚幻的；allusion 典故
outperform v. 表现好于，超额完成；胜过
over the past decade 在过去的十年里
whereas=while 而，尽管
accelerate 加速，加快
contrary to与…相反
perception 观念，理念；art perception 艺术理念；
deficit 赤字
plunge 垂直下降
fiscal=financial 财政的
budge v. 编预算
dwindle 缩小，萎缩
unsustainable 不能维持下去
consequent 随后的，后来的
imbalances 不平衡
inevitably 不可避免地
prolonged 延长的，长期的
inflexible 不灵活的
paradoxically 自相矛盾的是，似是而非的是
contemplate 考虑，沉思
to a limited extent 在一定的程度上
spot n. 地点，v. 发现

参考译文：
                                      下跌的美元
    本周，由于可预见的市场萎缩，美元继续保持下降的趋势。随着美元兑欧元下降到二十个月来的最低点（1.32美元兑1欧元），唯一可以算得上令人惊讶的事情是这种局面不会更快地下滑。的确，有充分的理由相信美元的下降趋势将继续下去，甚至打破2004年12月创造的1.36美元：1欧元的历史最低点。
    近期关于美国经济的大量负面新闻触发了美元的持续贬值。这一周来的新数据显示，美国房市的问题对经济带来了更广泛的影响。消费者信心和耐用品订单量都比预期的下滑还要更严重。相比之下，德国商业信心创下了15年来的历史新高，同样也出现了越来越多的担忧，那就是中国或其它地方的央行几年来一直努力囤积美元，而现在却开始抛售美元。
    因此，和流行的观念恰恰相反，美国经济近几年的经济整体表现并不明显强于欧洲的同期表现。自2000年以来，美国的结构性财政赤字显著提高（对经济周期对财政状况的影响进行修正后）。同时，随着美国家庭储蓄率持续下降，使得美国的流动资金赤字迅速增长。而在同一时期，欧元区的各经济体的财政状况良好，而家庭储蓄也基本保持不变。
    但是，周期性因素只能片面地解释美元为什么一直强势。美元对投资者的吸引力根本上更多地基于经济结构要素---或者更准确地说，基于投资者对于美国和欧洲的经济结构差别所产生的一种错觉。
    美元过去强势的主要原因是普遍存在的这种观点：近几年，相对世界其它富裕国家，美国经济的整体表现十分出众。但数据并不支持这一假设。的确，美国的国民生产总值增长速度要高于欧洲国家，但是这主要归功于美国快速增长的人口总量。生产力增长的官方数据，虽然在理论上是影响货币汇率走向的重要因素，但实际上却夸大了美国的领先地位。如果将欧美放在同一指标上进行比较，那么在过去十年里，欧美的经济表现基本上是一样的。更重要的是，最新的数据显示，当前美国的生产力增长正在放缓，而欧元区的生产力增长则在加速。
    因此，美国的经济增长一直靠消费增长所拉动。而消费增长则是建立在储蓄下降和负债增多的基础上，很明显，这种形式的经济增长是无法持久的，而因此造成的经济以及财政的不平衡的后果也将不可避免的出现。随着这种消费主因的经济增长的消退，国家将可能面临长时间的经济增长放缓。
    就欧洲而言，这块年迈的大陆被缺乏弹性的产品和劳工市场拖得步履艰难。但是，虽然听起来有些荒谬，这种状况相对来说可能是一种优势：它意味着欧洲人有很大的空间去改善他们的经济状况。一些欧洲国家开始慎重考虑（并在小范围内试行）他们的经济改革。如果这些改革成功，他们的经济增长将在未来显著加快。一旦投资者发现这点，他们很可能认为欧元相比

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等级: 内阁元老

配偶: 浮生缘

http://www.paipai.fm/r5969083/

举报只看该作者 26楼发表于: 2014-03-13 0

考研时文阅读(27)
Background Information 背景常识介绍
    统计数字显示17岁以下的青少年中一半以上的人每周至少上网发送一封电子邮件或是一条即时信息。微软和索尼两家视频游戏机巨头最近双双推出了升级版的互联网游戏服务来争夺价值300亿美元的市场。
                 Microsoft brings instant chat to TV screen, through games
   Microsoft planned to announce today that it will make its Windows Live Messenger service available on its Xbox 360 game consoles, bringing instant messaging from the computer to the television.
   The move was meant to help Microsoft stay ahead of Sony, its chief rival in the electronic games business, in delivering the richest online experience for game players. It is also an element of Microsoft's overall strategy to connect people across PCs, televisions and mobile devices like cell-phones.
   More than 200 million people use Windows Live Messenger to chat with friends, family members and colleagues. Separately, more than six million Xbox 360 owners are connected to the company's Xbox Live online community, an enhancement that lets people with broadband Internet connections communicate with one another.
   In the second week of May, those two worlds will begin to converge. Xbox Live members will be able to link their "gamer-tag" , the online identity they use within the Xbox community, to an existing Windows Live Messenger account. Players will then be able to chat with their instant-messaging contacts using a virtual on-screen keyboard or a USB keyboard plugged into the game machine.
   Microsoft executives said they hoped to offer voice chat between Xbox and Live Messenger users later this year. "We feel this is a huge step in driving social networking further into the family room by allowing Xbox 360 users to IM directly from their couch," said John Rodman, Microsoft's group manager for the Xbox 360, in a telephone interview last week. "Now you don't have to manage two separate groups of friends online."
   Microsoft and Sony are battling to dominate the high end of the console gaming market. (Nintendo, by contrast, is appealing largely to families and more budget-conscious players.) In years past, game consoles stood out from one another mostly by their game offerings. But now it appears that top game publishers like Electronic Arts will release most of their biggest games for both the Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3.
   As a result, Microsoft and Sony are attempting to differentiate their game machines with other features, like film playback capabilities and online services.
Microsoft has been ahead of Sony in online console game-playing, but last month Sony announced that it was developing a new Internet service called PlayStation Home that could surpass some elements of Xbox Live. The instant-messaging feature appears to be one part of Microsoft's response.
核心词汇
available a. 可以得到的，可以用的
console v. 安慰，慰藉 n. 操纵台，控制台
instant a. 立即的，即时的，instant noodles 方便面；
move n. 行动，举措
be meant to do=be intended to 旨在
stay ahead of 领先于
rival 对手
online community 在线社区
converge v. 聚合，合并，联合
virtual a. 虚拟的，实际的
link…to… 把…链接到…
enhancement n. 增进, 增加
account n. ① 账（目，户）；② 叙述，说明；③ 价值，地位；v.（for）① 说明，解释；② 占；③（take into~）考虑；顾及
(71) Actually, it isn’t, because it assumes that there is an agreed account (n. ② ) of human rights, which is something the world does not have.［1997年翻译］
事实并非如此，因为这种问法是以人们对人的权利有共识为基础的，而这种共同认识并不存在。
Is it true that the American intellectual is rejected and considered of no account (n. ③) in his society? ［2006年翻译］
是否美国的知识分子在社会中真的被排斥并被认为毫不重要？
Kitcher is a philosopher, and this may account (v. ①), in part, for the clarity and effectiveness of his arguments.［1996年阅读5］
肯切尔是位哲学家，这也许能部分说明他的理论为何明确而有说服力。
Multinational corporations accounted (v. ②) for less than 20% of international trade in 1982.Today the figure is more than 25% and growing rapidly.［2001年阅读4］
   跨国公司在1982年只占国际贸易不到20%的份额。而现在，这个数字上升到25%，并且还在迅速上升。
Dr. Myers and Dr. Worm argue that their work gives a correct baseline, which future management efforts must take into account (v. ③).［2006年阅读3］
Myers博士和 Worm博士认为他们的研究给出了正确的基准线，今后的管理工作必须要把这一基准线考虑在内。
budget n. 预算；v. 做预算
"We know that," the men from the budget (n.) office have said, "but what do you think? Is it worthwhile going on? What do you think we might expect?" [1999年阅读5］
   预算部门的人说："这点我们知道，但你的意见如何？你觉得值得做下去吗？你觉得我们可以期待什么呢？"
surpass v. 超过，胜过
参考译文
                    微软，将即时聊天服务通过游戏带入电视荧屏
    今天，微软公司按计划将宣布为他的Xbox360游戏机的控制器提供窗口即时通服务，将即时信息服务从电脑带入电视。
    此举措寓意在于帮助微软领先索尼--这个在电子游戏商业领域主要的竞争对手--带给游戏玩家最丰富的在线体验。这也是微软公司将通过个人电脑、电视、移动设备比如手机把人们联系起来的整体战略的一个方面。
    全球有两亿多人使用windows的即时通和朋友、家人、还有同事聊天。另外，还有6百多万Xbox游戏机的拥有者和公司的Xbox Live在线社区连接起来，这又促使拥有宽带连接的用户通过网络彼此交流。
    从5月的第二周开始，Windows 即时通和Xbox Live在线社区将合并在一起，Xbox Live的用户可以把他们的玩家代号和他们现有的Windows 即时通账号连接起来。这样，游戏玩家就可以通过虚拟的屏幕键盘或者是插入游戏机的USB键盘随意的聊天了。
    微软的主管人员表示他们希望能在今年的下半年为Xbox玩家和即时通的用户提供语音聊天服务。微软的Xbox360小组经理John Rodman在上一周的电话采访中表示："我们认为，通过使Xbox360的玩家们躺在自家的沙发上就能获得I.M.（即时通信）服务，这样就把社会网络更进一步的带入家庭，这是巨大的进步。现在，你完全不必在线管理两组分开的朋友。"
    微软和索尼为占领游戏市场的高控制终端正展开激战。（相比之下，Nintendo正在极力吸引家庭和更多的有预算头脑的玩家。）在过去的几年中，游戏的控制台程序大部分都是由生产商提供的。但是，现在，似乎像Electronic Arts这样的顶级游戏发行商把大部分的大游戏的控制台程序让渡给了Xbox360和索尼PlayStation3自己做。
    因此，微软和索尼都在尝试着用其它特色的东西以使其游戏机与众不同，比如，电影回放功能以及诸多在线服务。
    微软已经在在线玩游戏的控制台程序上领先索尼，但是，上个月，索尼宣布他们已经发布一种叫做PlayStation Home的新的Internet服务，此项服务能在某些功能上超过Xbox Live。而微软的即时通服务似乎是其对这一举动做出回应的一部分。

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举报只看该作者 27楼发表于: 2014-03-13 0

考研时文阅读(28)
Background Information
    家庭和社区介入治疗可以帮助每个家庭成员认识和解决家庭中的问题，促进相互理解、相互帮助，避免患者在治疗后又回到一个病态家庭中去；也可以帮助患者摆脱依赖，同时也消除患者给家庭成员造成的心理创伤。
                         When the cure is not worth the cost
Thanks to research by the National Institutes of Health and academic scientists during the last three decades, we now have proven treatments for depression, addiction and other mental disorders. But all too often clinicians do not use them.
Without financial incentives to provide treatments that are known to work, many mental health professionals stick with what they know, or pick up on the latest fad, or even introduce their own untested innovations--which in turn are spread by testimonials and credulous news media coverage.
Similarly, one of the most common approaches to alcoholism treatment involves having counselors and fellow alcoholics confront patients and force them to identify themselves as alcoholics. But research finds that the more a counselor confronts, the more a patient drinks and the more likely he is to drop out of treatment. And no association between accepting the label "alcoholic" and quitting drinking has been found. Counselor empathy---not confrontation-is connected with recovery.
According to a review by the Institute of Medicine in 2006, only 10.5 percent of alcoholics received "care consistent with scientific knowledge" of the disorder; similarly, 43 percent of children in psychiatric hospitals are given antipsychotic medication despite not suffering from psychosis. Tough boot camps for troubled teenagers--which have been proven to be ineffective and potentially harmful--thrive, while "multi-systemic family therapy," which effectively treats teenagers at home, is available only through the juvenile justice system.
Take the well-known approach featured on the cable TV reality show "Intervention" aimed at getting addicts and alcoholics into treatment. Here, the family and sometimes the employer gather with a counselor, confront the addict and threaten to shun him or fire him if he doesn't enter a rehabilitation center. A 1999 study compared this style of intervention ---which can backfire and lead to broken families---to a less confrontational approach known as "community reinforcement and family training," which is aimed at helping the family nurture the addict's own motivation.
More than twice as many families succeeded in getting their loved ones into treatment ( 64 percent) with the gentler approach than with standard intervention (30 percent). But no reality shows push the less dramatic method, and it is difficult to find clinicians who use it.
If we want to provide genuine help for the 33 million Americans with mental health and drug problems, giving more no-strings-attached money to providers via insurance mandates is not the answer. It is dangerous to blindly bolster useless and even harmful treatments while failing to support proven therapies. Coverage must be tied to outcomes and evidence. And payment should be dependent, at least in part, on health improvements, not just services received. We need parity in evidence-based treatment, not just in coverage.
核心词汇
thanks to 由于，因为(后常接短语)
depression 沮丧，萧条，忧郁症
addiction 上瘾，成瘾；be addicted to 对…上瘾
mental disorders 精神失常，精神紊乱
clinician 临床医生；clinic 诊所
incentives 鼓励，，动力，优惠措施
professionals 职业工作者，amateur 业余工作者
pick up 捡起来，接人，学会
fad 时尚，潮流
in turn 反过来
testimonial 证明书，奖状
credulous 容易相信别人的，易信的
news media coverage 新闻媒体报导
approach n. 方法，方式；v. 靠近，走近，接近
intervention 干预
aimed at 目的在于
addicts 上瘾的人
alcoholics 酗酒者
shun 躲开，躲避，避开
rehabilitation 康复，修复
nurture 培育，培养，教育
identify…as…. 把….看作是 ….
drop out of 退出
empathy
consistent with 与…一致
psychiatric 精神病的
psychosis 精神病
mandate 指令，要求，命令
bolster n. 垫子v. 支持
be tied to 与…相联系
be dependent on 依靠，取决于
at least 至少，in part 部分地
not just 不仅仅
核心词汇：
depression n. ①沮丧，消沉；②（经济）萧条，不景气
Failing hips can be replaced, clinical depression ( ① ) controlled, cataracts removed in a 30-minute surgical procedure.［2003年阅读4］
髋骨不行了可以更换，临床忧郁症得到了控制，白内障仅用30分钟手术便可以切除。
Even so, that gain adds up to only 11.4 percent, lowest in American annual records except for the Depression (②) years.［1998年阅读4］
即使如此，人口总数也只增加了11.4%，除了大萧条时期，这是美国年度记录最低的增长率。
credulous adj. 轻信的，易受骗的
intervention n. 干涉
In any case, all such interventions are heavily dependent on scientific advice and also scientific and technological manpower of all kinds.［2000年翻译］
无论如何，所有这些干预都非常依赖于科学的建议，也依赖于各类科技人才的力量。
therapy n. 治疗，理疗
The profession is taking steps to require young doctors to train in hospices, to test knowledge of aggressive pain management therapies, to develop a Medicare billing code for hospital-based care, and to develop new standards for assessing and treating pain at the end of life.［2002年阅读4］
医疗行业采取步骤，让年轻医生去晚期病人休养所培训，对各种大胆的镇痛疗法方面的知识进行评估，为医院护理制定一份符合美国医疗保障方案的付款条例，以及为评估和治疗临终痛苦制定新的标准。

参考译文：
                               治疗与花费之间的不等
    由于国家健康研究所和学院科学家们在过去三十年所作的研究，现在我们拥有可以治疗抑郁症、上瘾症以及一些其他精神失常症状的方法。但很多时候临床医师却不使用这些方法。
    没有金钱动力让他们提供有明确疗效的治疗方法，很多精神健康职业工作者坚持使用他们所知道的方法，或采用最新潮的方法，甚至使用未经检验过的自创方法，而这些方法却通过证明信和误导人的新闻媒体报道流传开来。
    同样的，治疗酗酒最为普遍的一种方法就是让咨询师和其他酗酒者与病人面对面，强迫这些病人承认自己是酗酒者。但研究表明越是和咨询师接触，病人反而饮酒量越多，而且退出治疗的可能性越大。而且并未发现接受酗酒者的标签与戒酒有任何联系。咨询师的同情，而非与其接触，和恢复正常有关联。
    根据一份2006年医药协会的评论，只有10.5%的酗酒者得到结合精神失调相关的科学知识的照顾和治疗。同样，精神病院中43%的儿童获得不受精神病困扰的治疗方法。严厉的青少年劳教营，已证明其对帮助问题青少年没有疗效甚至有潜在危险，却时兴起来；相反，有效的在家中治疗青少年的"多系统家庭治疗法" 却只能在青少年司法体系中使用。
    以有线电视真实现场秀"intervention（干预）"中提供的著名方法来说，这个方法是为了让瘾君子和酗酒者接受治疗。节目中，家人有时是公司雇主和咨询师一起面对上瘾者，威胁说如果他不参加康复治疗中心就赶走或开除他。一项1999年的调查把这种干预方法和比较温和的名为"社区强化和家庭训练"的方法进行比较，后者是为了帮助家庭来培养上瘾者自己戒掉不良嗜好的动力，而前者可能会后院起火从而导致家庭破裂。
    64%的家庭采用温和方法成功使得他们所爱的家人接受治疗，这是采用常规干预方法成功的家庭（30%）的两倍多。但没有任何真实秀节目推广这种温和的方法，也很难找到临床医师使用这种方法。
    如果我们想为三千三百万有精神困扰和毒品困扰的美国人提供真正帮助的话，通过保险授权给予更多的金钱并非是答案。盲目的改善无用甚至有害的治疗方法却无法推广有效的治疗方法是很危险的。保险条款应与结果和证据紧密联系。保险支付至少有一部分应当依据治疗效果而不仅是接受的服务来付出。我们需要与所付报酬等价的治疗，这种治疗是建立在医学证据之上而不仅仅是保险条款。

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举报只看该作者 28楼发表于: 2014-03-13 0

考研时文阅读（29）不受欢迎的人适合做企业家
You’re Awkward, Nerdy, No One Likes You? Great! You’re Poised to Become An Entrepreneur.
               不受欢迎的人适合做企业家
The tabloids are abuzz about a new study suggesting that Facebook can exacerbate the negative self-conceptions of kids troubled by low self-esteem. If you have 18 friends and see your neighbor has 1,118, the study says your sense of not measuring-up will get worse.
What enrages me is the take-away from this study: Something is wrong with Facebook because it exposes the fact that some folks are more popular than others. If this sort of blame-game insanity –with its concomitant regression to the mean mentality— is not outlawed, our nation will never again flex its entrepreneurial muscle. You cannot level the playing field of life by legislation, nor turn every putz that wants to play football into Payton Manning by giving Pop Warner league players “participation trophies.”
    一项新的研究正被各个小报议论纷纷，该研究称Facebook可能恶化那些受低自尊（low self-esteem）困扰的孩子对自我的感知。这项研究称，如果你有18个好友却看到自己的友邻有1,118个好友，你意识到自己没有达标就会让情况变得更糟。
    这项研究使我愤怒的地方在于它所传达的观点：Facebook有问题，因为它暴露出一些人比另外一些人更受欢迎的事实。如果这种有点类似于指责游戏的疯狂愚蠢劲儿——以及随之而来的向狭隘思想的倒退——没有被禁止，我们的国家将永远不能再施展出创业的实力。你无法通过法律来维持生活竞技场的公平，也无法通过给华纳青年联盟（Pop Warner）的球员颁发“参与奖”就让所有想玩橄榄球的傻瓜都变成佩顿曼宁（Payton Manning）。
In The Social Network, writer Aaron Sorkin suggests that a central drive prompting Mark Zuckerberg to develop Facebook was to “get women” he couldn’t connect with the normal way— through face-to-face interaction. Zuckerberg denies this –he claims he wanted to “improve the world and make it a more transparent place”— but I buy Sorkin’s view. I know of countless former misfits (e.g. Steven Spielberg) who instead of bemoaning their fates channeled their angst into a creative drive. Some, like Spielberg, became artists. Others became world-class entrepreneurs like Bill Gates. The drive is the same and the product is too if you realize that artists and entrepreneurs break molds and improve the existing modus operandi in their fields of endeavor.
If you are a parent worrying about your unpopular child, or an unpopular careerist under the age of 40 looking to get out of a corporate rut, here are a few suggestions regarding how you can go from holding pity-parties to contacting Goldman Sachs about an IPO in a matter of a few short years: You’re unpopular; so are game-changing ideas. If you are sick and tired of being an outcast, embrace the outcast status and recognize that whatever breaks the mold is first, untried, and secondly, unpopular, before it takes hold. Spielberg was loath to make ET because popular opinion was that movies about kids didn’t sell. His did, and today kid-flicks are almost as popular as chick-flicks.
    在电影《社交网络》（The Social Network）中，编剧阿伦索尔金（Aaron Sorkin）暗示，马克扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）开发Facebook的主要驱动力是“泡妞”，因为他无法以正常的方式——面对面的互动——来和她们接触。扎克伯格否认了这一点——他声称自己想要“改善世界，使之变成更透明的交流空间”——但我认可索尔金的看法。我知道有无数曾经的格格不入者（如史蒂芬斯皮尔伯格<Steven Spielberg>），他们没有哀叹自己的命运，而是将自己的焦虑转化成创新的动力。有些人，像斯皮尔伯格，成了艺术家，其他的则成了比尔盖茨（Bill Gates）这样世界级的企业家。如果你意识到这些艺术家和企业家打破陈规，改善自身领域现存模式的努力，你就会明白他们的驱动力和成果都是一样的。
    如果你是一个在为自己不受欢迎的孩子担心的家长，或者你是一个40岁以下不受待见的“野心家”——寻思着要脱离公司的轨道，这里有一些建议，能令你摆脱顾影自怜的状态，在短短几年的时间内，摇身变成和高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）商讨上市事宜的大人物：你不受欢迎，那些改变游戏规则的构想也一样。如果你对做一个弃儿感到不爽和厌倦，那么你就应该拥抱这种状态，并认识到那些打破陈规的事物首先都是无人尝试过的，其次它们在占据主流前都是不受欢迎的。斯皮尔伯格并不愿拍摄《外星人》（ET）这部电影，因为流行的看法认为关于孩子的电影卖不出高票房。但他的电影成功了，如今儿童电影几乎就跟女性电影一样受欢迎。
If you are ready to change what you are, find a project you believe in and will invest your soul in. Then ask some gray beard how many of the kids who were super-popular in high school “made it” as adults. Being popular is de-motivating; stuff comes to you; you never develop the capacity to struggle and persevere. You’re lucky if you’re a nerd provided you use that status to fight for what you want.
What do you have to lose by taking a risk? It goes without saying that to be an entrepreneur you have to take risks (calculated ones are best), or at least not be rise-averse. Guess what? You are poised, irrespective of your psychological temperament, to do just that if you look in the mirror and assess your status honestly. Your social life sucks; how much worse will it get if you go out on a limb in pursuit of something you believe in? You may fail, but in who’s eyes? Remember, the in-crowd has already made the a priori assessment that you are a loser. That won’t change if you fail, so tell yourself you have only one way to go and that’s up.
    如果你准备改变自己，找到一个自己有信心的项目，并愿意将精力倾注其中。然后，你可以问一问那些老人家，有多少高中时的风云人物成年后也“做到了”。成为受欢迎的人物让人不思进取，事情总是不断来到眼前，你永远也不能培养出奋斗和坚持不懈的能力。而如果你是一个不受欢迎的人，你就很幸运，因为你可以利用这种状态来为自己想要的东西而努力。
    冒险会让你失去什么？毋庸赘言，要成为一个企业家，你就必须承担风险（预料当中的风险最好不过），或者至少不应该厌恶风险。你猜怎么着？如果你看看镜中的自己，老老实实评估一下自己的状况，你就会随时准备好去冒险，而顾不上自己的性情是怎样。你的社交生活糟透了，如果你冒险去追求一些自己所信仰的事物，情况还能变得有多糟呢？你可能失败，但谁又会看在眼里？记住，那些圈内人已经预先把你设定为一个失败者。如果你失败了，这种评价也不会改变，那么告诉自己，你只有一条路可走，一条向上的路。
It’s easier for you to persevere than for someone who is popular. Take pity on folks in the in-crowd; they have no time for themselves. There are countless parties, events, and gatherings to go to, whereas you have nothing but free time to do with as you please. If you commit yourself to investing this time in overcoming the difficulties inherent in every start-up enterprise, then take pains to never stop moving toward your goals, you are better suited to building a business than the guy with 4,000 “friends” on Facebook. That jerk spends hours indicating how much he likes friends’ posts, pictures, and other aspects of their site.
If you suffer emotional pain over lacking friends, this is a sign of social sensitivity. The most important attitude alignment you need to make before breaking out of your unpopular status involves seeing the pain you are in as proof that you are a sensitive person with the potential to change from geek to good-guy. What this new study about Facebook depression fails to note (at least in wire service stories I’ve read) is that many unpopular kids are not merely awkward souls who don’t fit in but, rather, misfits who are actively rejected. If you ventured into social networking and feel distressed that you did not make it big, and if you want to convert your life from couch potato to life participant, you have the sensitivity that hostile outcasts and incipient sociopaths lack: You care.
    你比那些受欢迎的人更容易坚持下来。为那些“交际花”感到惋惜吧，他们没有私人的时间，他们有无数的派对、事件和集会要去赴宴，而这些你都没有，只有空闲的时间去做自己喜欢的事。如果你致力于把这些时间用来克服每个初创企业所遇到的困难，然后殚精竭虑地向着自己的目标进发，你就比那个在Facebook上有着4,000名好友的家伙更适合创办一家企业，那个笨蛋整日都在诉说自己有多喜欢朋友们的帖子、图片或网页上的其他内容。
    如果你因为缺少朋友而感到痛苦，那么这就是有社交需求的迹象。在你改变自己不受欢迎的身份之前，你所需做的最重要的心态校正包括：察觉到自己是因为缺少朋友而感到痛苦，这是一个人敏感、有可能从一个怪人变成正常人的证据。这项关于Facebook抑郁症的新研究所没有注意到的是（至少在我读过的媒体报道中），许多不受欢迎的孩子并不只是个性古怪不合群，也有相当一部分人是被拒绝而显得格格不入。如果你涉足社交网络对自己没有广交好友感到苦恼，如果你想从生活的旁观者变成参与者，那么你就拥有那些怀有敌意的被驱逐者和初期反社会人格者所缺乏的敏感：你还在乎一些事。
Your sensitivity can be a huge advantage if you use it as the basis for change. Tell yourself you want to study the popular folks and discern what they like. In B-Schools that’s called a market analysis. Keep doing this until you can see a need that goes wanting among the cool kids, then fill it. Whether Zuckerberg was driven to create Facebook to get dates or make the world more connected, he hit upon a universal need.
Popular folks, as I noted, don’t sense social needs as acutely as you do. They, like hot VCs, hot movie and TV producers, or hot women, have more suitors than they can handle. Use your loneliness in ways those folks cannot; become a need-satisfying entrepreneur.
Jack Kerouac, the iconoclastic novelist and poet whose writings helped inspired the Hippie movement (my “thing” back in the day), once remarked, “Great things are not accomplished by those who yield to trends and fads and popular opinion.” Bottom line: If you are not now popular, consider yourself poised to accomplish great things.
    如果你将这种敏感作为改变的基础，那么它有可能成为一个巨大的优势。告诉自己，你想向那些受欢迎的人学习，弄清他们所喜欢的事物。在商学院里，这被称为市场分析。坚持做下去，直到你发现了那些受欢迎的人所亟需的东西，然后满足他们的需求。不管扎克伯格创建Facebook是想泡妞还是想让世界的联系变得更紧密，他找到了一种普遍的需求。
    正如我所指出的，受欢迎的人并不像你那样感受到社交需求的迫切，他们——像炙手可热的风险投资者、热门电影和电视节目制作人，或者热辣美女——拥有的追求者多得自己都应付不过来。善用你的孤独——这是那些人无法做到的——成为一位满足他人需求的创业者。
    杰克凯鲁亚克（Jack Kerouac）这位打破旧习的小说家和诗人——他的作品曾帮助推动了嬉皮士运动（我难忘的过去）——曾说过，“那些随波逐流、追寻时尚、人云亦云的人做不成大事。”结论：如果你现在不受欢迎，考虑一下去干一番大事业吧。

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举报只看该作者 29楼发表于: 2014-03-13 0

考研时文阅读(30)：Dan Abrams Explains Why “Women Are Better”
Dan Abrams Explains Why “Women Are Better”
A new book promoting women as the superior sex comes from an unlikely source. The so-called “terminally single” and “steely eyed” Dan Abrams, founder of popular sites Mediate and Geekosystem, recently penned the validating, if hyperbolic, tome Man Down: Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt That Women Are Better Cops, Drivers, Gamblers, Spies, World Leaders, Beer Tasters, Hedge Fund Managers, and Just About Everything Else.
The ABC News legal analyst said he approached the book like a lawyer. After reading an article that claimed female superiority in certain jobs, he did some digging. Soon, he’d found so many studies asserting that women were better—better at tolerating pain, better with hammers, better students, better investors, better at appreciating a good joke—that Abrams realized he had a clear case that women were better at “just about everything.”
I asked a few ladies for their reaction. Well I knew that, responded most with a smile. The men that I approached, however, did a collective eye roll. One even questioned my motives. After all, I’ve reported on a host of recent books and articles that paint modern men as, well, losers. A few recent titles: The End of Men, Is There Anything Good About Men?, Manning Up: How The Rise of Women Turned Men Into Boys.
I called up the ever smooth, new-media industrialist to ask: What’s with all the man hate?
“I don’t view this as a cause book,” said Abrams. “This is not to suggest that men are unnecessary, but women are passing men in a lot of important areas.”
He’s the first to point out that the guys are not so pleased. Many have called him “sexist” and a “sell out.” One aptly named boys club, Men Are Angry Now, petitioned to get Abrams fired when he announced the book on NBC.
Although he did not demand a “particularly rigorous scientific method” or require top-tier double blind studies, Abrams says he’s found clear evidence to “bash some of the stereotypes” against women. Most surprising to him was the finding that women were better hedge fund managers, despite that the field is 97% male.
According to data by Hedge Fund Research, female managers produced average annual returns of 9% from 2000 to 2009, compared to male manager’s 5.82%–nearly doubling men’s performance. Moreover, Abrams uncovered data reported by BusinessWeek that funds run by women lost half as much as those run by men during the recession.
“To think that those 3% of female managers are better than the 97% of male managers is astonishing,” Abrams said. “There’s no question that women are more risk averse, thoughtful and deliberative.”
That pattern of thoughtfulness likely contributes to other findings, he said, like women being safer drivers, better students and more likely to vote.
Abrams noted that the book was meant to provide a mix of both “serious” and “frivolous” findings. A few are downright questionable. Women are better competitive eaters? He must not watch Man Vs. Food. Women are better sleepers? Not with a newborn in the house. Women get ready faster than men? That is just silly.
Clearly, this must be a ploy to pick up women. No, he announced on The View that he had a girlfriend.
Doesn’t this hurt your manhood? “I am comfortable in my own skin,” said Abrams.
“Are men better at anything?” I asked.
“While women are better drivers, men are better parkers,” Abrams said. That makes sense somehow.
“Men are better at reading maps,” he continued. “Men have better long distance vision. Men treat their friends better. Men are better dieters.” Of course. That’s why I’ve felt so fat today.
Abrams believes women are out-performing men in many realms, like education, because they have long been the underdog. “When you’re behind, you have to work harder,” he said. “Women have had to work harder to get ahead, and now they are in a place where they are surpassing men.”
So what’s going on with our men? I asked, “Should I be worried?” “They earn more money for the same work, are the majority of business leaders and hold most of the power,” Abrams said. “Let’s not feel sorry for the men just yet.”
   有本新书宣称女性比男性更加优秀，而这本书的作者实在出乎人们意料。他就是“永远单身”、“目光如炬”的丹艾布拉姆斯（Dan Abrams）。这位流行网站Mediate和Geekosystem的创始人最近撰写了一本言之凿凿（如果不算夸张的话）的厚书，名为《男性衰落：铁证如山，女性是更好的警察、司机、赌徒、间谍、世界领袖、品酒行家、对冲基金经理和几乎其他所有职业》（Man Down: Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt That Women Are Better Cops, Drivers, Gamblers, Spies, World Leaders, Beer Tasters, Hedge Fund Managers, and Just About Everything Else）。
   这位ABC新闻的法律分析师表示，他是从一位律师的角度来撰写这本书的。在读到一篇声称女性在某些岗位上比男性更加优秀的文章后，他便进行了一番调查。他很快发现，许多研究都显示女性比男性更加优秀。比如，她们更能忍受疼痛，更能承受压力，是更好的学生和投资者，也更善于领会有趣的笑话。于是艾布拉姆斯意识到，他有了明显的论据来证明女性在“几乎所有事情上”都比男性更加出色。
   我曾问几位女士对这本书有何看法，她们大都报以微笑。而我所问过的男士全都翻白眼，有人甚至质疑我的动机。毕竟，我已经报道过近期许多把现代男性描绘成失败者的文章和书籍，标题包括《男人的末日》（The End of Men）、《男人一无是处？》(Is There Anything Good About Men?)、《拿出男子汉模样：女性崛起如何让男人变成男孩》(Manning Up: How The Rise of Women Turned Men Into Boys)等。
   我给这位圆滑的新媒体实业家打电话，问他：“男人的这些不满是怎么一回事？” “我并不把这本书看成是诉讼登记册，”艾布拉姆斯说，“这本书并不是说男性多余，而是说女性在许多重要领域里正在赶超男性。”
艾布拉姆斯是第一个指出男性并不是那么优秀的人。很多人称他是“性别主义者”和“叛徒”。当他在NBC电视台上介绍这本新书时，一个名为“男人们现在很生气”的男性俱乐部要求炒他鱿鱼。
   虽然艾布拉姆斯没有采取“特别严格的科学方法”，也没有进行最高层级的双盲研究，但他表示，他已经找到了明显的证据来“批驳某些针对女性的陈词滥调”。其中最令他吃惊的证据是，尽管97%的对冲基金经理都是男性，但女性在这个职位上的表现更为出色。
   对冲基金调查公司（Hedge Fund Research）的数据显示，在2000年至2009年，女性对冲基金经理的平均年回报率为9%，比男性的5.82%几乎高出一倍。此外，艾布拉姆斯还发现《商业周刊》的数据显示，由女性管理的基金在经济衰退期间的倒闭数量只有男性的一半。
   “在基金经理中占3%的女性比占97%的男性更加出色，一想到这一点就令人吃惊不已。”艾布拉姆斯说，“相比男性，女性无疑更加倾向于规避风险，思考也更加周到细致。”
   艾布拉姆斯表示，这种思维模式或许也能解释其他的调查发现，比如女性驾车更安全、学习更好、投票意愿更强等。
   艾布拉姆斯指出，这本书旨在向人们同时提供“严肃”和“轻浮”的各种调查发现。其中有些调查结果相当可疑。女性吃得更多？他肯定没看过《男人与食物》这档节目。女性睡得更好？家里有新生儿的时候就不可能。女性的准备时间更短？这纯属胡说。
显然，这肯定是吸引女性的花招了。不，艾布拉姆斯在《观点》这个节目中已经宣布自己有女朋友了。
这难道没有伤害到你的男性自尊吗？“我自己完全不觉得。”艾布拉姆斯说。 “男性还能在什么事情上比较出色呢？” 我又问。“女性是更好的司机，而男性是更好的停车者。”艾布拉姆斯说。这句话有道理。
“男性更善于看地图。”他继续说道，“男性有更好的长远眼光，对朋友也更好，同时还是更好的节食者。”这话没错，难怪我现在觉得自己很胖。
   艾布拉姆斯认为，女性在教育等许多领域都胜过了男性，因为她们长期以来都处于弱势地位。“当你落后的时候，你就必须更加努力。”他说，“女性不得不更加努力才能出人头地。如今，她们正在赶超男性。”
那么，男人们怎么办？我问道：“这个问题值得担心吗？” “在同样的职位上男性挣得更多，而且绝大多数企业领导都是男性，大部分权力也都掌握在男性的手中。”艾布拉姆斯说，“所以，现在不必为男人们感到难过。”

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举报只看该作者 30楼发表于: 2014-03-13 0

考研时文阅读（31）How To Ace Your Performance Review
How To Ace Your Performance Review
                               怎样在绩效考评中拿高分
UCLA's Samuel Culbert wants to banish performance reviews, but they remain a fact of life at many companies. 塞缪尔教授想要取消绩效考评，但在很多公司，这可不是能轻易改变的东西。
Three years ago, Samuel Culbert, a UCLA professor and management consultant, published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled, “Get Rid of the Performance Review!” The piece got a huge response from readers, and he went on to write a book with the same title, which came out last year.
The performance review “destroys morale, kills teamwork and hurts the bottom line,” Culbert wrote in the Journal. “A one-side-accountable, boss-administered review is little more than a dysfunctional pretense.” A Ph. D. in clinical psychology, he hates performance reviews, if anything, even more today.
Given that the performance review is a fact of life for most workers at big companies, does Culbert have any suggestions for getting through the process with maximum gain and minimum pain? “You’ve got to be calculating,” he says. “Don’t get emotional.” Remember that subjective forces are at play.
Paul Falcone, vice president of human resources at Time Warner Cable in Los Angeles and author of 2600 Phrases for Effective Performance Reviews, has more concrete advice to offer. First, Falcone says, you must take the initiative. Do your own self-examination in advance, he advises. Some companies ask their employees to fill out self-review forms. If yours doesn’t, put yourself through the paces anyway. “Otherwise it’s like being a turkey on Thanksgiving,” Falcone says. “You put your head down on the block and wait for your boss to lower the ax.”
He recommends starting the process two months before your review. Write a memo detailing your achievements. What have you done to increase revenues, to decrease expenses, to save time, to reinvent your department in light of the company’s changing needs? Make sure you track the entire year since your last review. “Bosses don’t remember what you did 11 months ago,” Falcone points out.
Additionally, Falcone recommends you spell out what support you need from your boss. Also, detail your goals for the next year. What sort of measurable outcomes are you shooting for? This will help you in your review a year from now.
In your self-review, and in the performance review itself, speak plainly. “Talk English, for Pete’s sake,” Falcone says. Do not say anything like, “We leveraged strategic resources.” Speak in specifics, not generalities.
If you can, Falcone advises, frame the discussion yourself, casting your boss in the role of gentle coach and mentor rather than disciplinarian. “A lot of people go into the review asking, ‘How did I do, boss?’” he observes. “If you do it right, you’ve done the boss’ job for her, with respect and humility.”
What if the boss levels some unexpected criticism? Handle it calmly and openly, Falcone recommends. Apologize, but try not to take it personally. He suggests saying something that includes the word perception, as in, “If your perception is that I’m not doing this as well as you expected, then I take responsibility for that, and I’m sorry.” He calls such a response “business maturity.”
Own up to mistakes when you make them, he advises. Then thank your boss for the feedback.
    三年前，加州大学洛杉矶分校教授兼管理顾问塞缪尔卡伯特（Samuel Cullbert）在《华尔街日报》发表专栏文章，题为《让绩效考评见鬼去！》的文章在读者中引起巨大反响。去年，塞缪尔教授出版了一本同名书籍。
    他在《华尔街日报》上的文章中写道，绩效考评“降低工作士气，破坏团队合作，损害企业利润。由老板主持的单方面绩效考评，就跟一场扭曲而矫情的演出差不多。”作为一名临床心理学博士，塞缪尔教授现在对于绩效考评的愤愤之情甚至更加强烈了。
    然而对多数大公司员工来说，绩效考评是无法逃避的。对此，塞缪尔教授有何建议可以帮助员工获得最好的绩效评分，同时承受较少的折磨呢？“那你得要深思熟虑，”他说，“可不能感情用事。”要记住，在绩效考评中，你的主观态度是决定因素。
    洛杉矶时代华纳在线人力资源副总监保罗法尔肯（Paul Falcone）是《绩效考评实用2,600句》一书的作者，对此他给出了更为具体的建议。首先，法尔肯说，你必须掌握主动。他建议员工事先做好自我考评。有些公司会要求员工填写自评表格。如果你的公司不要求，那么你就自觉去做。“不然的话你就好比一只待宰羔羊，”法尔肯说，“乖乖把头垫在砧板上等着老板来砍。”
    法尔肯建议在正式考评前两个月开始进行自评。把你做出的成绩以备忘录的形式记录下来。比如你做了某某事，增加了公司的收入，减少了支出，节省了工时，根据公司不断变化的需求改组了你的部门等等。记得要把上次考核至今一整年来的成果都记下来。法尔肯指出：“老板可不记得你11个月前都干了什么。”
    此外，法尔肯还建议员工具体说明自己希望从老板处获得什么支持。员工并应当详细制定来年目标，说明自己要达成何种可衡量的结果。这些都将帮助你在一年后的考评中获得好成绩。
    无论在你的自评还是正式考评中，请用明确直白的语言表达。“拜托大家在考核时不要讲些让人听不懂的话。”法尔肯建议。比如别说什么“我们调配了各种战略资源”之类的话。要讲得具体，切忌泛泛而谈。
    法尔肯表示，如果可能的话，可以把考核谈话自己排演一遍。把你的老板想象成一个慈祥的教练和导师，而不是一个纪检委员。他在观察中发现：“很多人在考核时都会问：‘老板，我这一年干得怎么样？’如果你本着谦恭的态度正确对待考核，那你就是替老板分了忧。”
    假如老板对你提出一些出乎你意料的批评呢？法尔肯的意见是，你要平静而坦率地处理。你可以向老板道歉，但尽量不要把责任大包大揽。他建议在回应中使用“您认为”一词。比如“如果您认为我的表现没能达到您的预期，我会承担责任。我很抱歉。”他认为这种表述是“职业上成熟”的表现。
    如果你确实存在老板反映的问题，那么就承认错误，感谢老板及时给你反馈。

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考研时文阅读(32)一项新的医学比较研究
Many people assume that medicine has accumulated much knowledge about how best to treat patients and improving care is just a matter of applying what we know. If only it were so.
This week’s New England Journal of Medicine has an article that serves as another stark reminder of the extent of our ignorance and the challenges in filling the gaps. The article presents a study that compares different ways of using water pills, or diuretics, for the treatment of patients hospitalized with heart failure.
So what is notable here? First, heart failure is the most common cause of hospitalization among older individuals, accounting for more than a million a year. Doctors have no paucity of experience with these patients. Water pills are not new drugs, having been around for more than 50 years. The early diuretics replaced a brutal way to eliminate excess fluid through the use of tubes that were placed below the skin of swollen, edematous tissue to relieve the pressure. Before that bloodletting and leaches were used. The introduction of diuretics now provided a means to flush extra fluid out through the kidneys. The early diuretics had substantial side effects, the later ones were better tolerated. The diuretics most often used for heart failure, furosemide (Lasix) was introduced in 1966.
    许多人认为，医学界已经积累了有关如何治疗病人的足够知识，且改善疗效不过是将我们所知道的东西化为行动而已。如果真是这样就好了。
    本周，《新英格兰医学期刊》（New England Journal of Medicine）刊登了一篇文章，再次对我们的无知程度和填补知识空白所面临的挑战敲响了警钟。这篇文章援引了一项研究，该研究对心力衰竭而入院病人采用利尿剂治疗的各种不同方法进行了比较。
    这里值得关注的地方是什么呢？首先，心力衰竭是老年人入院最常见的病因，每年约有100多万例。医生对此类病患的经验并不算少。利尿剂并非新药，诞生已有50多年。早期的利尿剂代替了将导管埋于肿胀组织皮肤之下以排除体内多余水分、减轻压力的野蛮方式。在这之前采用的则是放血和水蛭疗法。现代利尿剂的引入提供了一种通过肾脏排除多余液体的方法。早期的利尿剂存在大量副作用，现代利尿剂的副作用则在可接受的范围之内。最经常被用于治疗心力衰竭的利尿剂速尿灵（furosemide）于1966年诞生。
Fast forward to 2011, 45 years later, you would think that medical science would have figured out how best to use furosemide – what doses to give – how to best administer it. However, you would be wrong. This study was designed to determine if we should be treating patients with a high dose of the drug or a low dose – or whether we should administer it in periodic doses or through a continuous intravenous infusion. It turns out that doctors have been using it according to their own habits and have not had any substantial studies to direct them.
This gap in knowledge is what comparative effectiveness studies are intended to address. Amid all the noise about health care, the idea of comparative effectiveness studies – that is the direct comparison of two or more strategies – was framed as an effort to reduce cost. It would be a nice dividend if these studies identified wasteful practices that could be eliminated, but our dire need is to illuminate the many areas of darkness that still exist in medicine, where we are practicing based on our intuition and knowledge of basic biology – but with little understanding of the benefits and risks of alternative approaches. And we are discovering more and more that what we might anticipate from our knowledge of basic science does not always pan out when we study what happens to patients.
    时间很快到了45年之后的2011年，你可能会认为医药科学已经发现了如何使用速尿灵的最佳方法——如何最好地掌控它。然而，你错了。这项研究旨在找出我们在治疗病人时是应该使用高剂量还是低剂量——或者我们应该定期定剂量地使用还是通过持续静脉注射。结果是，医生们都只是按照自己的习惯进行选择，目前也没有任何实质性的研究来指导他们用药。
    这一知识的空白正是比较效用研究（comparative effectiveness study）想要着手解决的问题。在所有有关医疗保健的声音中，比较效用研究理念——即两种或以上治疗策略的直接比较——被认为是降低成本的一种办法。如果这些研究发现了不经济的治疗方法，并将之淘汰，那将会是不错的回报，然而我们迫切需求的却是照亮医疗界尚处于黑暗之中的许多领域，在这些领域中，我们仅凭自己的直觉和基本生物学知识进行操作——而对于各种可能疗法的益处和风险知之甚少。我们正越来越发现，我们期望从基础理论上所得到的与我们的临床研究结果并不常常是相吻合的。
With advances in technology and the potential of research networks we need to commit to research that will reveal the trade-offs of different strategies and inform the choices of individuals. How can good decisions be made when the critical information about how strategies compare is missing?
We need to learn from experience. What is striking in this example is that more than a million hospitalizations of patients with heart failure occur annually and yet we have not systematically learned from the varied approaches to treatment that are being pursued every day. We are wasteful of the lessons that could be extracted from our experience–and there is much power in that knowledge if it can be harnessed.
So what was the result of the study? Unfortunately it was a rather small study that included only about 300 patients, limiting what it could investigate. It was reported that there were no discernable differences between the high dose regimen and the low dose regimen–or between the periodic dosing and the continuous dosing. Doctors and patients who want to know more about whether certain types of patients can benefit from one strategy over another–or whether longer-term outcomes were different – will have to wait for the next study.
In the meantime the challenge is to determine how to do more of these studies – and do them faster and cheaper so that the decisions made in darkness become more infrequent. And it does not take 50 years after the introduction of a drug to determine how it is best employed in practice.
    随着技术的进步和研究网络潜能的上升，我们需要致力于那些能够揭示不同疗法如何进行权衡取舍、让病人拥有选择权的研究。要是有关如何进行治疗方案比较的关键信息缺失，又如何能够做出好的选择呢？
    我们必须从经验中学习。上述例子中令人吃惊的一点是，每年因心力衰竭而入院的病患超过100万例，而我们却尚未系统性地从每天使用的各种治疗方法中学习到什么。我们浪费了这些原本可能从中提炼出精华的宝贵经验——如果善加利用，这些知识的力量可能会非常巨大。
    那么研究的结果是什么呢？不幸的是，这不过是一项相当小规模的研究，仅有300名病人参与，对可调查的内容产生了一定的限制。据称，高剂量方案和低剂量方案之间并没有显著区别——定期给药和持续给药也没有发现显著区别。那些想要知道某一类型的病人是否能从某个治疗方案中获益更多——或者长期结果会否不同的医生和病患不得不等待下一场研究了。
    与此同时，我们现在所面临的挑战是：如何进行更多的此类研究以及如何以更快的速度和更低的成本进行研究，以减少“两眼一抹黑”式的治疗方案选择。新药推出后，找出使用它的最佳方式其实并不需要50年的时间。

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考研时文阅读（33）实体商场从网络商家手中极力挽回消费者
Bricks-and-mortar shops struggle to win customers back from virtual ones
                  实体商场从网络商家手中极力挽回消费者
SHOPPERS on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season in America, which falls on November 27th this year, are notoriously aggressive. Some even start queuing outside stores before dawn to be the first to lay their hands on heavily discounted merchandise. Last year berserk bargain-hunters in the suburbs of New York City trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death. Despite the frenzy at many stores, however, the recession appears to have accelerated the pace at which shoppers are abandoning bricks and mortar in favor of online retailers—e-tailers, in the jargon. So this year Black Friday (so named because it is supposed to put shops into profit for the year) also marks the start of many conventional retailers’ attempts to regain the initiative.
    黑色星期五通常是美国假日消费季节的开端，今年的黑色星期五恰逢11月27日，场面热闹非凡。有些人甚至天没亮就在商店门外排队希望可以第一个抢到“大跳水”的商品。去年，纽约市郊沃尔玛超市的一名员工因为顾客疯抢打折商品而被踩伤致死。然而，商场销售虽然火爆，但商场萧条之势却越演越烈，因为消费者正在弃实体商场转而投入在线零售商---行话叫电子零售商的怀抱。所以今年的黑色星期五（这样命名源于这一天应该是令商店该年盈利的日子）也标志着传统实体零售商收回失地的第一炮。
  E-commerce holds particular appeal in straitened times as it enables people to compare prices across retailers quickly and easily. Buyers can sometimes avoid local sales taxes online, and shipping is often free. No wonder, then, that online shopping continues to grow even as the offline sort shrinks. In 2008 retail sales grew by a feeble 1% in America and are expected to decline by more than 3% this year, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade body. In contrast, online sales grew by 13% in 2008 to over $141 billion and are predicted to grow by 11% in 2009, according to Forrester, a consultancy.
    在经济大环境恶化的背景下，电子商务具有独特的优势：消费者可以轻松快捷的货比三家。有时在网上购物可以避开当地营业税，而且通常免邮费。这就难怪网络销售可以在即使实体店销售萎缩的情况下仍然保持增长。2008实体商场零售额增长了可怜的1%, 而且预计今年的销售量将下滑三个百分点，全美零售商联合会（贸易组织）如是说。而与之形成鲜明对比的是网络销售。根据顾问公司福斯特的报告，网络销售量于2008年增长了13%，达到1410亿美元，预计今年将增长11%。
Online sales now account for 6% of all retail sales in America (up from 5% in 2008) and that figure is expected to reach 8% by 2013. E-commerce is also growing in Europe and Asia, where online sales in 2008 totaled $60 billion and $40 billion, respectively. In Britain, internet shopping now accounts for nearly 4% of total retail sales, according to Planet Retail, a research firm.
    网络销售目前占全美销售量的6%（2008年为5%），预计到2013年之前这一数字将达到8%。电子商务在欧洲和亚洲也方兴未艾，两洲2008年的网络销售额分别为600亿美元和400亿美元。目前英国的网络销售量占销售总额的4%左右，这一数字引自调研公司行星零售。
Online-only shopping sites such as Amazon and eBay, two e-commerce giants, have thrived in the downturn. Amazon’s sales rose to around $5.5 billion in the third quarter of the year, up by almost 30% from a year before. Listings, chiefly from commercial vendors, have surged so rapidly on eBay that its website briefly crashed on November 21st.
    诸如亚马逊和eBAY（网络销售巨头）等不设实体店铺的在线消费网站在经济危机之下茁壮成长。亚马逊今年三季度的销售量达到约55亿美金，与去年相比，增长了30%. eBay亦是如此。订单（以供应商的为主）数激增，导致eBay网站于11月21日暂时瘫痪。
The range of items available online is also growing. Amazon has started selling groceries. Consumer-goods companies such as Procter & Gamble (P&G) are encouraging the sale of things like nappies (diapers) and laundry detergent online. At the opposite extreme, the internet is also being used to sell luxury goods. Faberg, a defunct-jewellery-maker known for its gem-encrusted eggs, re-launched in September. It will not open any shops but will instead operate only online.
    网络销售的产品种类亦在扩大。亚马逊已经开始在网上销售杂货。保洁等消费品公司也正在网上促销像尿片和洗衣粉等小商品。与这些小商品完全相反的奢侈品也被搬到了网上销售。已经销声匿迹的珠宝制造商Faberg（以镶嵌宝石的蛋而闻名）于九月重新开业。该公司摒弃实体店只在网络销售产品。
The shift in spending to the internet is good news for companies like P& G that lack retail outlets of their own. But it is a big concern for brick-and-mortar retailers, whose prices are often higher than those of e-tailers, since they must bear the extra expense of running stores. Happily, however, conventional retailers are in a better position to fight back than last year, when overstocking forced them to resort to ruinous discounting. Inventories are about 15% lower this year. Some big retailers, such as Saks and Target, have recently reported rising revenues and margins.
    消费者转向网络消费对保洁这种没有自己专营店的公司来说是利好消息。而对于实体零售商来说却是棘手问题。因为实体零售商存在经营成本，其零售价格通常高于网上价格。然而，利好的一面是今年传统的零售商能够扳回一成的几率较去年高。去年库存过多，传统零售商被迫亏本打折，而今年的库存量下降了大约15%。诸如Saks和Target等的一些大型零售商已于最近传来营业额增加，利润率上升的好消息。
The most obvious response to the growth of e-tailing is for conventional retailers to redouble their own efforts online. The online arms of big retailers are performing well, on the whole. Saks, for example, saw online sales rise 9% in the nine months to the end of October while sales in its stores fell by 19%. The company expects online growth to outpace sales in stores for the “foreseeable future”, says Stephen Sadove, its boss.
    传统零售商应对网络销售最直接的应对措施是进一步加强网络销售力度。总的来说，大型零售商的网络销售部门表现抢眼。以Saks为例，该公司一月至十月的网络销售额增长了9%，而实体店销售则下滑19%。Saks希望在“可预见的未来”网络销售增长超过实体商场，Saks总裁Stephen Sadove如是说。
The concept of “multi-channel” shopping, where people can buy the same items from the same retailer in several different ways—online, via their mobile phones and in shops—is gaining ground, and retailers are trying to encourage users of one channel to try another. Growing online traffic may actually increase sales in stores too. According to a spokesman for Macy’s, a department-store chain, every dollar a consumer spends online with Macy’s leads to $5.70 in spending at a Macy’s store within ten days, because consumers learn about other products online and come into stores to look them over before buying them. Many online retailers offer tools that let people locate the nearest outlet that has a given item in stock.
    “多渠道”销售的概念是指顾客可以通过网络、手机、亲临实体店等不同方式从同一个零售商手中买到同样的产品。这种概念正在为人们所接受。零售商也在鼓励单一渠道的消费者尝试其他的购买途径。网上交易量增长也可能促进实体店的销量上升。梅西百货公司（百货连锁公司）的发言人表示：顾客在梅西网站每花一美元，十天之内该顾客会在梅西百货商店消费5.7美元，因为顾客在网站上看到其他商品的信息，他们会亲临商场仔细检查在网上看到的商品，然后再购买。很多网络商家还提供专门服务，帮助顾客找到离他们最近的、出售他们中意产品的专营店。
Retailers are also trying to make shopping seem fun and exciting to counteract the economic gloom. One common tactic is to set up “pop-up” stores, which appear for a short time before vanishing again, to foster a sense of novelty and urgency. Following the lead of many bricks-and-mortar outfits, eBay recently launched a pop-up in New York where customers could inspect items before ordering them from kiosks.
    商家也在绞尽脑汁增加购物的乐趣和刺激感以应对经济颓势。最常见的策略是开设“弹出式”店铺，这种店铺仅短时间存在，之后便再次消失，给顾客以新鲜感和紧迫感（要赶紧购买，否则便消失不见了）。eBay也加入实体店引领的风潮，于最近在纽约开设了一家弹出式商铺。顾客可以在这个商铺里仔细检查商品品质，然后在网上订购。
Shoppers are increasingly looking for an “experience” when they go to stores, says Jack Anderson of Hornall Anderson, a branding and marketing firm, and are no longer interested in purely “transaction-based bricks and mortar stores”. Apple, which encourages customers to try out its devices in its stores, is considered a pioneer of this strategy, and has attracted many imitators. The Walt Disney Company, for example, is rumored to be redesigning its stores to attract shoppers looking for entertainment, with new features such as “magic mirrors”, which will allow children to play with Disney characters.
   消费者越来越倾向于“体验式”购物，“纯交易性实体商店”已经无法打动顾客的心了，品牌与营销公司Hornall Anderson的 Jack Anderson如是说。苹果公司在“体验式”购物方面是先锋，顾客可以在苹果店试用产品，引来许多商家跟风。迪斯尼公司便是其中之一。据传，该公司正在重新设计店铺吸引喜欢娱乐的顾客。店铺增加了诸如“魔镜”等特色项目，孩子们还可以和迪斯尼卡通人物一起玩耍。
Stores are also trying to lure customers by offering services that are not available online. Best Buy, a consumer-electronics retailer, has started selling music lessons along with its musical instruments. Lululemon athletica, which sells sports clothes, offers free yoga classes. The idea is to bring people back to its shops regularly, increasing the likelihood that they will develop the habit of shopping there.
    实体商店也在竭尽全力吸引顾客，为他们提供网上购物无法实现的服务。消费类电子零售商百思买已经开始通过绑定音乐教学课来销售乐器。体育服装公司 Lululemon athletica开设免费瑜伽课（带动产品销量）。这种做法能够把顾客定期拉回到商店，进而增加了顾客在商店购物的可能性。
Another great hope is that mobile phones will come to the rescue of conventional retailers. Some consumers already use internet-enabled handsets to shop online. But many analysts think a technology called near-field communication (NFC) might boost sales at stores, by allowing shoppers to scan products with their phones to learn more about them, and then to pay by swiping their phones at the till. Unfortunately, NFC will not be widely available for some time—too late to help harried retailers through Black Friday.
    另一个被寄予厚望拯救传统零售商的是手机。有些顾客已经使用具有上网功能的手机在网上购物。但是分析人士认为能够提振商店销量的或许是近距离通信技术（NFC），利用这项技术，消费者可以通过手机了解产品信息，然后再通过手机付款。问题在于，NFC广泛应用尚待时日，帮助腹背受敌的商家实现黑色星期五盈利还无从谈起。

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考研时文阅读（34）金融危机究竟会对美国的经济潜力造成多大损害？
How much will the financial crisis hurt America’s economic potential?
                  金融危机究竟会对美国的经济潜力造成多大损害？
AMID the hubbub over a few less-bad-than-expected statistics, America’s economic debate has turned to the nature of the recovery. Optimists expect a vigorous rebound as confidence returns, pent-up demand is unleashed and massive government stimulus takes effect. Most observers, including this newspaper, are bracing for a long slog, as debt-laden consumers rebuild their savings, output growth remains weak and unemployment continues to rise. There is, however, something that eventually will have a much bigger impact on Americans’ prosperity than the slope of the recovery. That is the effect of the crisis on America’s potential rate of growth itself.
在对一些比预期稍好的数据的聒噪中，对美国经济的争论倒向了恢复的一边。乐观人士预计在信心回稳、抑制的需求得到释放以及政府大规模刺激方案取得成效的情况下，经济会有力的反弹。包括本报在内的多数观察家则认为慢慢前路仍充满艰险，因为深陷债务泥潭的消费者在重新建立他们的储蓄，出口增长依然疲软而且未就业人数继续上升。然而，一些东西最终对美国繁荣的影响要比经济复苏这一斜线大的多。那就是危机对美国潜在增长率的影响。
An economy’s long-term speed limit (its “trend” or “potential” rate of growth) is the pace at which GDP can expand without affecting unemployment and, hence, inflation. It is determined by growth in the supply of labor (the number of workers and how long they toil) along with the speed with which productivity improves. The pace of potential growth helps determine the sustainability of everything from public debt to the prices of shares.
一个经济体的长期速度限制（它的“趋势”或“潜在”增长率）是它维持GDP能够增长而又不影起未就业人数和通货膨胀变化的速度。它由劳动力供给（工人数量和工作时间）的增长与生产率提高的速度决定。潜在增长率的速度帮助决定了从公共债务到股票价格等的一切事物的可持续性。
Unfortunately, the outlook for America’s potential growth rate was darkening long before the financial crisis hit. The IT-induced productivity revolution, which sent potential output soaring at the end of the 1990s, has waned. More important, America’s labor supply is growing more slowly as the population ages, the share of women working has leveled off and that of students who work has fallen. Since 1991 the labor supply has risen at an average annual pace of 1.1%. Over the next decade the Congressional Budget Office expects a 0.6% annual increase.
不幸的是，早在金融危机袭来之前，美国的潜在增长率的前景就日趋暗淡。曾在90年代末使潜在前景飞涨的IT导向型生产力革命已经式微，更重要的是，美国的劳动力供给速度要远落后于人口老龄化的速度。参加工作的妇女所占的份额与之前持平，而学生的就业率在下降。自1991年起劳动力供给以年均1.1％的速度增长。国会预算办公室预测未来10年的增长速度为0.6％。
According to Robert Gordon, a productivity guru at Northwestern University, America’s trend rate of growth in 2008 was only 2.5%, the lowest rate in its history, and well below the 3-3.5% that many took for granted a few years ago. Without factoring in the financial crisis, Mr. Gordon expects potential growth to fall to 2.35% over the coming years.
据西北大学生产力专家Robert Gordon,称，美国2008年的增长率仅仅接近2.5％，这是历史上的最低点，而且远低于多数人前些年认为理应达到的3－3.5％。将金融危机排除后，Gordon先生预计未来几年的潜在增长率回跌落到2.35％。
That alone is grim news. But has the Great Recession made things worse? In theory, it could do. Slumping investment may slow the pace of innovation. Soaring government debt could raise interest rates. Higher taxes, designed to reduce the debt, might dull incentives to work and invest. More regulation, in finance and beyond, could deter innovation. Workers’ skills may atrophy as a result of joblessness. On the plus side, well-targeted government spending on, say, infrastructure or education could boost potential output, while the huge wealth that Americans have lost may induce more of them to work for longer.
单独来看这是一个残酷的消息，然而是经济大萧条把事情弄得更糟吗？理论上讲，是的。暴跌的投资会减缓创新的速度。飚升的国债导致利率升高。旨在减少债务的更高额税金或许会降低工作和投资的动机。在金融与其它领域的更多监管会阻碍创新。作为失业的恶果，工人们的技能可能会退化。从正面上看，政府对基础设施和教育有的放矢的投资能够提升潜在产出，尽管美国人失去的巨额财富可能促使更多的人工作更长时间。
History sends mixed signals about how much these effects matter. Surprisingly, the 1930s bode well. Despite the deep slump in growth and investment, America’s potential growth rate is reckoned to have risen smartly during the decade, as innovations from nylon to synthetic rubber proliferated, while business processes were fundamentally overhauled. Alexander Field, an economist at Santa Clara University, has called the 1930s the “most technologically progressive” decade of the 20th century.
对于这些对此问题的影响有多大，历史给出了混杂的答案。令人吃惊的是，30年代预示了良好的形势。尽管增长与投资暴跌，但由于诸如尼龙和人造橡胶等创新的普及，美国的潜在增长率经计算在这10年中还有小幅上升。在此期间商业过程得到根本性的革新。Santa Clara大学的经济学家Alexander Field将30年代称之为20世纪“最技术革新”的十年。
In the modern era Sweden offers grounds for optimism. Its productivity growth accelerated after the early 1990s financial crash, in part because the government dealt swiftly with the banking mess. Japan, in contrast, saw productivity growth shrivel in the early 1990s. Several studies pin blame for that on Japan’s unwillingness to tackle its banking mess. But the process was not irreversible; Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute has argued that by the late 1990s Japan’s potential output had risen modestly, thanks to financial reform and broader deregulation. Nor is there much sign that Japan’s gaping budget deficits have crowded out private investment. Yields on long-term Japanese bonds slumped from 7% in 1990 to 1% in 2003, and are still only 1.45%, even as gross public debt is heading for 200% of GDP.
在现代，瑞典为乐观者提供了坚实土壤。它的生产力增长在90年代早期金融冲击后加速，这部分得益于政府对银行坏帐的及时处置。日本则与其恰恰相反，在90 年代早期它的生产力增长减缓。许多研究将批评矛头指向日本无意解决它的银行坏帐问题。但这个过程不是不可逆的。Peterson研究所的 Adam Posen 认为由于金融改革和更大规模的解除管制，日本的潜在产量在90年代后期有了适当上升。也没有什么迹象表明日本那令人吃惊的预算赤字对私人投资产生了挤出效应。日本长期债券收益从1990年的7％跌落至2003年的1％。即使公共负债的总额达到GDP的两倍，收益也只有1.45％。
Is this cause for optimism about America? Possibly not. Compared with the 1930s, America’s workers are more specialized, which makes it harder to shift occupation; they are also more cushioned with social protection, which reduces the urgency to adapt. Workers are less flexible because the housing bust will prevent many from selling their houses to move to where the jobs are. JP Morgan estimates that America’s natural rate of joblessness may have risen from 4.75% to closer to 6%.
这是对美国持乐观精神的原因吗？可能不是。与30年代相比，美国工人们变得更加专业，这使得他们更难更换工作；社会保护措施给了他们更多的缓冲，这就降低了他们适应当前形势的迫切性。工人们并没有多少灵活性，因为房地产的破产将阻碍许多人卖掉房屋从而搬迁到能够找到工作的地方。JP Morgan 预计美国的自然失业率可能从4.75％上升至接近6％。
Today’s investment slump may have particularly pernicious effects on productivity because, unlike Japan’s, it does not follow a capital-spending binge. During the recent bubble years, America’s housing investment boomed, but corporate investment was laid low by the dotcom bust.
现今暴跌的投资可能对生产力有显著的恶劣影响，因为随它而来的并不是资本消费的盛宴，这与日本不同。在最近充满泡沫的几年里，美国的房地产投资很繁荣，但公司投资由于之前的互联网崩溃而处于低位。
                          Debt burden
                           债务负担
Most important, even if Americans become thriftier, soaring public debt may crowd out private investment more than in Japan, which, unlike America, is a creditor country. Already American bond yields are starting to rise. Academics differ about just how much bigger budget deficits and higher public debt affect interest rates, but most agree that they do. A 2004 study suggests that interest rates rise by 0.03% for every 1% increase in the debt/GDP ratio. That ratio is set to rise by 30 percentage points between 2008 and 2011, which implies a 1% higher risk-free interest rate, and commensurately lower private-sector investment. Even if higher private saving blunts the effect, some crowding out is eventually all too likely.
最关键的是，即使美国人变得节俭了，飞涨的公共债务可能会对私人投资产生挤出效应，而且要比日本的更厉害。而日本是一个债权人国家，这与美国不同。美国债券收益已经开始上升。学者们只就多大的预算赤字和多高的公共负债会影响利率意见不同，但多数人认为它们的确会影响利率。一份2004年的研究显示负债与 GDP之比每提高1％，利率就升高0.03％。在2008到2011间，这个比值将固定为上升30个百分点，这就意味着无风险利率每升高1％，私人部门投资就会降低相应的数额。即使更多的个人储蓄会弱化这一效应，某些挤出效应将最终与其类似。
All of these effects can be mitigated by good policies, or exacerbated by bad ones. Sensible approaches to reducing America’s long-term deficit, by tackling entitlement spending or reforming the tax code, would minimize the rise in long-term yields and might even boost potential growth. Misguided efforts to prop up declining industries or dictate lending decisions would add to the damage. America is heading for an era of slower growth. Just how much slower is still up for grabs.
所有的这些影响可以通过实施好的政策得以减轻，也可以在不力政策下进一步恶化。通过解决授权支出或改革税法的办法是削减美国长期赤字的明智方法，这将使长期收益的增长最小化并且甚至可能提高潜在增长。支持衰微产业或指定贷款决议的误入歧途的努力会增加损害。美国正在走向慢速增长的时代。只是到底有多慢，这还有待观察。

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等级: 内阁元老

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http://www.paipai.fm/r5969083/

举报只看该作者 34楼发表于: 2014-03-14 0

考研时文阅读（35）网络搜索数据也许可以帮助经济预测专家
Internet search data may be useful for forecasters
                 网络搜索数据也许可以帮助经济预测专家
CLAIMS of clairvoyance, particularly when they come from economists, deserve a sceptical reception. Hal Varian, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley who also happens to be Google’s chief economist, has no such pretensions, but he does believe that data on internet searches can help predict certain kinds of economic statistics before they become available.
   人们具有预见能力的这一说，尤其是经济学家的预见能力通常都会引起质疑。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授，谷歌公司首席经济学家Hal Varian表示，他没有如此的洞察力和预见力，但他相信在某些经济统计数据公布之前，网络搜索的数据能够帮助预测这些数据。
In a new paper written with Hyunyoung Choi, a colleague at Google, he argues that fluctuations in the frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict, for example, retail-sales figures or house sales. Actual numbers for such things are usually available only with a lag. But Google’s search data are updated every day, so they can in theory capture shifts in consumer behaviour before official numbers are released.
Varian和谷歌的另一名同事Hyunyoung Choi最新发表了一篇论文，他表示对于人们在网上搜索的一些字词短语，其频率的变化可以提高经济计量模型预测零售销售或售房数据的准确性。这些确切销售数据通常是要滞后一段时间才能得到。但是谷歌搜索数据每天都在更新，因此理论上在官方数字出炉之前，们就把握住了消费者行为的变化。
These data are available through a site called Google Trends, which allows anyone who cares to do so to download an index of the aggregate volume of searches for particular terms or categories. Mr Varian and Mr Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates.
人们可以在一个名叫谷歌趋势的网站上得到这些数据，并且可以下载特定条款或物品被搜索总量的指数。Varian和Choi表示，共同利用这些搜索趋势和经济计量模型就能够提高预测的准确性。
For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data. The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well.
比如，与不用搜索数据的模型得出的预测相比，利用货车和SUV的搜索数据来预测汽车月销售量会减少高达18%的平均误差。在美国，英国，澳大利亚和印度等国进行的对香港的搜索似乎也能预测从这些国家到香港旅行的游客人数。
How widely could this idea be applied? For some things, like retail sales, the categories into which Google classifies its search-trend data correspond closely to what people may want to predict, such as the sales of a particular brand of car (see chart). For others, like sales of houses, things are less clear. It appears that searches for estate agents work better than those for home financing. But anything that makes the crystal ball less cloudy is welcome.
   这一方法的应用有多广？对于一些事物，比如零售销售，某些种类（谷歌将搜索趋势数据划分到该种类）和人们期望预测的事物非常相关，比如某一种汽车品牌的销售。对于其它的项目，如房屋销售，情况就比较模糊。但对房地产经纪人的搜索似乎比对房屋抵押贷款机构的搜索更能清楚地说明房屋销售问题。无论如何，，只要能使这个水晶球更加透明清晰，任何方法都是受人欢迎的。

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举报只看该作者 35楼发表于: 2014-03-14 0

Physiognomy and economics
                                  相面术与经济学
                                   About face
                                    有关相貌
             People’s creditworthiness, it seems, can be seen in their looks
                       人的信誉度，似乎可以为相貌所反映
SCIENCE proceeds by trial and error. The successes are trumpeted. The errors are often regarded with embarrassment by subsequent generations, and locked away in attic rooms of the subject’s mansion like mad relatives in a Victorian novel. Usually, they stay there. Craniology, phrenology and eugenics, once-respectable fields of endeavor that are now regarded with a shudder, may shriek from time to time, but few sane people pay attention to them. One, however, has escaped recently, and is trying to rehabilitate itself. For years physiognomy—the idea that a person’s face is a reflection of his character—was sneered at. Now, it is making a come back.
    科学依靠试错而前行。成功伴随着胜利的号角得以扬名天下，而谬误让后人感到尴尬万分，就像维多利亚时代的小说中常描写的发疯的亲戚那样，被束之高阁，无人问津。通常情况下，这些谬论就这么一直沉寂下去了。颅骨测量学、颅骨性向学、优生学这些曾经引人景仰的学说现在已经令人厌恶，虽然偶尔也能让人注意片刻，但在常人的意识中已经无立锥之地了。然而，最近有一个学说似乎逃出沉沦，绝地重生。这就是相面术，即所谓人的脸反映其性格的学说。这个曾被人讥讽、嘲笑的对象，现在卷土重来了。
Appearances certainly count. Women, for instance, judge men by their faces. Testosterone levels are reflected in the face, and who is seen as a one-night stand and who as a potential husband depends in part on this physical feature. Similarly, a male face betrays the owner’s underlying aggressiveness and even his business acumen. Facial beauty in either sex is also associated with higher incomes. The latest research, though, cuts to the moral quick. For Jefferson Duarte of Rice University in Houston, Texas, and his colleagues are suggesting that one of a person’s most telling moral features, his creditworthiness, can also be seen in his face.
    人的外表确实重要。例如，女人通常根据脸判别男人。脸反映了男人的雄激素的水平，谁被看作是一夜情对象，谁被看作是一个潜在的丈夫在某种程度上取决于脸部特征。可同样也是男性的脸隐藏了其下的进取心，甚至是他的商业敏感。对男女两性来说，漂亮的脸蛋也与高收入不无关系。最新的研究结果，把人的相貌和道德之间的关系也迅速搭建起来了。之所以这么说，是因为位于得克萨斯州休斯顿的赖斯大学的杰弗逊杜阿尔特和他的同事们认为，作为最反映一个人道德水平的特征 - 人的信誉度，也同时反映在了他的脸上。
Dr Duarte’s research was enabled by the internet. Once, if you wanted to borrow money, you had either to visit a bank or to tap a rich friend or relative. Now it is possible to do business directly with a stranger, using a peer-to-peer lending site. The needy advertise themselves, and how much they want. Those flush with cash assess potential borrowers and decide who to lend to, and at what rate of interest.
    阿尔特博士的研究是由互联网启用。再次，如果您要借钱，你可以访问银行或利用丰富的朋友或亲戚。现在是做生意的可能直接与一个陌生人，使用点对点借贷网站。需要宣传自己，他们要多少。这些充裕的现金评估潜在的借款人，并决定向谁贷款，以及以何种利率。
The borrowers themselves have to disclose their financial positions, credit histories, jobs and education. Often, though this is not required, they also post photographs of themselves. That means it might be possible to assess the effects of appearance on the outcome. And the process is an open auction, which means that all offers, acceptances and rejections are in the public domain.
   借款人本身必须公开其财务状况，信用记录，就业和教育。通常情况下，尽管这不是必需的，他们还张贴自己的照片。这意味着有可能的影响评估的结果出现。该进程是一个开放的拍卖，这意味着所有提供，接受和拒绝是在公共领域。
For his research, Dr Duarte chose a site called Prosper.com. His intention was twofold: to see if physiognomy-based prejudices about creditworthiness existed and, if they did, whether they were justified. To do so he used another peer-to-peer website to subcontract the job of assessing creditworthiness to a number of ordinary people. The site in question (which is run by Amazon) is called Mechanical Turk. In this case the people it matches are those who have a task that needs doing, and those willing to perform it.
   他的研究，选择了医生杜阿尔特网站呼吁Prosper.com 。他的意图是双重的：看看地貌为基础的偏见和信誉存在，如果他们这么做，他们是否是合理的。这样做他用另一种点对点网站的工作分包合同信用评估了一些普通百姓。该网站的问题（这是由亚马逊）被称为机械特克。在这种情况下，人民匹配的是谁的任务，需要做的时候，和那些愿意履行它。
Peer review
The team recruited 25 Mechanical Turk workers and asked them to assess pictures of potential borrowers that had been posted on Prosper.com. In particular, they were asked to rate, on a scale of one to five, how trustworthy these people looked, and to estimate the percentage probability that each individual would repay a $100 loan. They were also asked to make several other assessments, such as the individual’s sex, race, age, attractiveness and obesity. The 25 results for each photograph were then averaged and analyzed.
    研究小组招募25机械特克工人，并要求他们以评估潜在的借款人的照片，已张贴在Prosper.com 。特别是，他们被要求速度，规模的4点59分，怎么看这些人的信赖，并估计百分比概率每一个人将偿还100美元的贷款。他们还要求作出若干其他评估，如个人的性别，种族，年龄，吸引力和肥胖。结果在25日的照片，然后每场和分析。
The researchers looked at 6,821 loan applications, 733 of which were successful. Their first finding was that the assessments of trustworthiness, and of likelihood to repay a loan, that were made by Mechanical Turk workers did indeed correlate with potential borrowers’ credit ratings based on their credit history. That continued to be so when the other variables, from beauty to race to obesity, were controlled for statistically. Shifty physiognomy, it seems, is independent of these things.
    研究者观察到6821贷款申请，其中733是成功的。他们的第一个结论是，评估的可信度，并可能偿还贷款，即发了言机械特克工人确实相关的潜在借款人的信用等级根据其信用记录。继续这样做时，其他变量，来自美种族肥胖，被控制的统计。富机智的外貌，似乎是独立于这些东西。
That shiftiness was also recognized by those whose money was actually at stake. People flagged as untrustworthy by the Mechanical Turks were less likely than others to be offered a loan at all.    To have the same chance of getting one as those deemed most trustworthy they were required to pay an interest rate that was, on average, 1.82 percentage points higher, even when the effects of historical creditworthiness were statistically eliminated.
    这shiftiness也承认那些钱实际上是处于危险之中。标记为不可信赖的人的机械土耳其人不太可能比其他人提供的贷款在所有。具有相同的机会获得一个为那些被认为最值得信赖的，他们需要支付的利息是，平均1.82个百分点，即使在历史上的影响进行了统计信誉消除。
For trustworthiness, then, physiognomy works. Unfortunately, Dr Duarte’s method was not designed to find out which features label someone as trustworthy. But credit-rating agencies are no doubt working on that question even now.
    对于诚信，那么，地貌工程。不幸的是，医生杜阿尔特的方法不是为了找出哪些功能标签作为值得信赖的人。但信用评级机构的工作毫无疑问是对这个问题即使是现在。

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